Not So Persistent

In yet another illustration of the remarkable ability of the American political system to bolt the barn door securely after the horses have already departed, the decline in demand for labor in the construction and retail sectors may have accomplished what Border Control could not. According to Douglas Massey, co-director of Princeton’s Mexican Migration Project, net migration from Mexico is now essentially zero. In all likelihood lower demand for labor on the U. S. side of the border, the dangers of the border region, improved economic conditions in Mexico, and changing Mexican demographics probably all play a part in the change.

The changing patterns in the geography of border crossing, illustrated in the graph above, probably explains some part of the reaction (or over-reaction) in Arizona. Much of what immigration there is at the Arizona border through Sonora.

Even if the U. S. jobs picture were to rebound I doubt that migration from Mexico would return to what was seen in the 1980s and 90s. Mexican demographics, indeed, Latin American and Caribbean demographics has changed. The birth rate has been proceeding at, essentially, the replacement level for some time. That combined with improved economic conditions just won’t present the powerful push seen previously.

I suspect that will be very disappointing to anyone who’s planned on a persistent flow of new migrants whether politicians or businesses. Over the next couple of decades I expect that the focus of world migration is more likely to be into Europe from North Africa than into the United States from Latin America and the Caribbean.