I found this post at Politico, listing some “black swan” events that might happen next, interesting:
So we asked an array of thinkers — futurists, scientists, foreign policy analysts and others — to lay out some of the possible “Black Swan” events that could await us in the new year: What are the unpredictable, unlikely episodes that aren’t yet on the radar but would completely upend American life as we know it?
Our experts floated all sorts of catastrophes, from the threat of AI to deadly epidemics, but they also raised the notion of progress, including in some surprising global hotspots.
The following scenarios may or may not take place in 2025, but they shouldn’t immediately be dismissed. When we undertook this exercise last year, a number of predictions proved eerily prescient.
Among the “non-predictions” in the list are:
- The Largest Cyberattack in History
- A Secret Deal to Stop Iran From Developing Nuclear Weapons
- Secessionists Are on the March
- A Trump and Xi Alliance Will Emerge
- A Two-State Solution
Some on the list are more likely than others. Some are frighteningly likely. Some appear to be happening already.
Some sort of AI attack/failure seems to be the most common prediction and is likely. The secession stuff doesnt seem that likely but if it happens in one place does it spread? Might be interesting as a lot of rural areas dont realize how much they rely upon subsidies from the cities in their states so its hard to see sessions into a new state but maybe moving into another, unless the new states start realizing the burden they are taking on.
Steve