I have encountered quite a number of posts, editorials, etc. fretting, lamenting, or chortling (depending on viewpoint) over President Biden’s approval rating. There are claims that his campaign team are panicking over it. Personally, the approval rating doesn’t particularly concern me—as some, particularly the president’s supporters, take care to point out, the election is more than six months away. What I think should concern them is the trend or lack thereof. The president approval rating despite some noise has been remarkably stable for well over six months with a floor of about 40% approving and 55% disapproving. Whether that can actually be changed is an open question. However, plenty of people are offering advice.
For example, in his Wall Street Journal op-ed Karl Rove offers advice to both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. For President Biden:
Mr. Biden can turn things around only if he figures out how to take down Mr. Trump with undecided voters, especially those who don’t like either candidate—and soon. The president is running out of time to convince these voters that Donald Trump is worse than he is. Other incumbents were successfully attacking their challengers long before this point in their re-election race.
Biden strategists also have to get it through their heads that swing voters aren’t left-wing Democrats. They don’t want a “transformational” Democratic president but the reassuring, transitional figure they believed they were backing in 2020.
Mr. Biden does, however, have a financial advantage that he’s using to build an aggressive get-out-the vote effort. While this won’t give him 8 or 10 more points, it could boost him enough to win some states that are close today.
He needs it. If you consider the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, the Clinton campaign outspent the Trump campaign nearly 2:1 and lost while the Biden campaign outspent the Trump campaign by a little less than 2:1 and won. The constant is that Democratic campaigns cost more. Why that might be is material for another post.
Here’s his advice for President Trump:
To stay ahead he too needs a message correction. Mr. Trump should spend much less time talking about his legal troubles and more offering a compelling second-term vision. As he entered the courtroom Tuesday, he devoted a minute and a half to issues voters care about, such as electric vehicles and tariffs on China, but spent seven minutes complaining about his courtroom treatment. By failing to realize this election is about America’s future and not his present, Mr. Trump is providing Mr. Biden an opening. We’ll see if the president takes advantage of it.
I don’t know if its on purpose or by accident. But Trump focusing and being made to focus on his trials has the effect that he’s doing a “front porch campaign”.
He’s getting free publicity without doing much campaigning, and every moment he’s talking about his trial is when he doesn’t have to talk about policy specifics, like what to do in foreign policy, or the economy, etc.
Biden’s problem is unlike 2020, he is an incumbent, and his record isn’t great compared to Trump on the issues voters consistently say are the most critical (inflation, economy, housing prices, immigration). Because Trump was also a President, it is hard to attack based the risk of the unknown, and its far too late to change voters views on those critical issues based on policy changes.
“He’s getting free publicity without doing much campaigning, and every moment he’s talking about his trial is when he doesn’t have to talk about policy specifics, like what to do in foreign policy, or the economy, etc.”
Yes. But also, IMHO the left have shot their collective dicks off. Just take the Bragg trial. A “complete sham” as described by any credible legal analyst, today we had the star witness, Michael Cohen, absolutely destroyed, perhaps a perjury rap. No one knows what the charge is. The witness list is a clown show. The judge a hyper-partisan. Its a star chamber trial. And people sense it, even though most don’t even know the issues at hand. Only the most severely Trump deranged still think this has merit. (And they even lost CNN today, although MSNBC is still holding on, and who knows what at Raw Story, Bulwark or OTB)
They have martyred him. More importantly, the people understand that deep down, this is all sanctioned by one of the most corrupt politicians of all time: Joe Biden.
Credible legal analyst means people Drew likes. Trump cultists wont believe anything bad about Trump anyway (see above) so this wont move th needle very much. Among the persuadable, a small group by now, I doubt they are following the trial in any detail but suspect that the basic idea that if you pay porn stars to keep quiet to help your election and lie about it, its probably a crime. Does anyone really believe he didnt have sex with her as Trump claims, other than the cultists?
Steve