Never Tell Me the Odds

One more thing about the latest, lousy unemployment figures. While these results are pretty much what I expected and they’re certainly not good news for the country, the White House, or incumbent Democrats in Congress, I’ll be very surprised if they impel a change in the control of Congress from Democrats to Republicans.

I know that the average number of seats that’ve changed hands when the president’s approval rating is below 50%, as President Obama’s is now, since 1962 is 41 and the Republicans need 40 to take control of the House. It doesn’t matter. It isn’t 1962. Districts have been jiggered that many, many more seats are “safe” than they were 50 years ago.

Republicans will pick up seats, possibly as many as 30, but that’s not enough to re-take the House.

It will take much worse news over a more protracted period for that to happen.

2 comments… add one
  • Sam Link

    Remember when elections used to be about what the new guy could do for you, not just about how bad the incumbent was? I’ve been voting mostly 3rd party for 7 years. I vote third party not because I think they have a chance of winning, but because lesser of two evils is unacceptable when they both reach a certain evilness.
    No one likes “Congress”, but not enough are all that unhappy with THEIR congressperson – or certainly not unhappy enough to risk losing the seat to the other party.

  • Off-topic–altho I must say the bad employment figures certainly don’t come as a surprise to me, altho I don’t consider myself one of the smart people with letters after their name! Want to say enjoyed your Schuler grandparent picture. How transitory is conjugal happiness, it seems. If one clicks on the photo, one can see how your granddad’s hand is draped on her shoulder. Its a beautiful photo. Now a pic of the parents of your mother? Who left you not so long ago.

Leave a Comment