I wanted to call your attention to the remarks of Venezuelan Quico Toro at the Persuasion Substack:
Maduro is gone. It’s tempting to think that, without him, the regime will implode. But Maduro’s was never the kind of personalist system that depends on a single leader. It was always more of a team effort, with a constellation of influential figures like Rodríguez and Cabello teaming up with Cuban intelligence to keep dissent at bay. In other words, the kind of regime that could very well survive decapitation. And if it does, Venezuelans will get the worst of it.
For three decades, the most trustworthy principle for interpreting Venezuelan affairs has been a simple heuristic: whatever outcome makes Venezuelans’ lives most miserable is always to be treated as the odds-on-favorite. If, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio apparently told Senator Mike Lee, the United States really isn’t planning any follow-on actions against the rump regime, then for Venezuelans on the ground nothing may change. Things could get even worse: you can easily imagine a wounded and humiliated Chavista successor ratcheting up state repression to rebuild the regime’s now tattered aura of invincibility.
Maduro’s abduction could easily become an all-purpose excuse to crack down on any and every sign of dissent: any expression of dissatisfaction will surely be used as evidence of connivance with the American enemy. Trump’s stunning one-day win could be remembered for heralding an even darker stage in Venezuela’s path towards totalitarianism.
At the same time, as the post-9/11 era showed, if the United States did attempt to install a democratic government, that too could go wrong in a million ways. This is not to mention the fact that the operation was carried out illegally, with no Congressional authorization, and that the precedent of superpowers deciding which foreign leaders to capture may not always lead to the downfall of people as evil as Maduro.
All through this latest round of American pressure, the specter of half-measures has loomed large over Venezuela’s future. The Bolivarian regime is always at its most vicious when it feels most threatened, and, right now, it must feel enormously threatened. Time and again, when the regime feels threatened, it’s ordinary Venezuelans who pay the price.
or, in other words, what I’ve been saying.
Trump made two claims in his press conference: (1) the US will run Venezuela; (2) US oil companies will take over and operate the oil fields. There may be enough Venezuelans friendly (submissive) enough to set up a puppet regime, but Maduro’s Vice President and other officials have already claimed control, and have promised to oppose American control.
How Trump can execute his plans without a large scale invasion that removes the remaining Chauvanistas remains to be seen.
And then there is the Iranian opportunity/trap