The editors of the Washington Post encourage the president to continue his imposition of tariffs on countries buying Russian oil:
President Donald Trump called Russia’s bluff on Friday. In response to nuclear saber-rattling from a close ally of Vladimir Putin, Trump announced he will deploy two nuclear submarines to the region. The president’s previously conciliatory posture toward the Kremlin gives such counterpunches real credibility: Mess around, find out.
After Putin strung him along for months as he sought an end to fighting in Ukraine, Trump took steps this past week against India that Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama were reluctant to take, for fear of escalation and economic fallout, in the face of Russian revanchism. They already show signs of working. The president now has an opportunity to press his advantage by doing the same with China.
The inability of Western sanctions to cripple Russia’s economy has been one of the most persistent frustrations since Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine 3½ years ago. Russia’s economy actually grew by more than 4 percent last year and has been estimated to grow again this year, albeit more slowly. Putin has weathered sanctions by shifting to a wartime footing and developing a network of new trading partners for oil and energy exports, relying on a shadow shipping fleet. Its principal customers are China and India.
Oil is the lifeblood of Putin’s war machine. Sen. John McCain often observed that Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country. But Biden worried that pushing China or India too hard to stop buying Russian crude would lead to a surge in gas prices that hobbled the U.S. economy and therefore ruined his reelection hopes. (Biden managed that last part without any help.)
India’s goods exports to the United States are a relative drop in the bucket. We don’t actually know the volume of services outsourced to India by U. S. companies because we don’t keep track of them. I suspect if we really intend to influence India’s policy with respect to Russia we’ll need to start doing that and find a way to influence that as well.
I don’t believe that the risks of India allying with Russia and China against us are as great as some claim. The Indians are well aware that China poses a greater threat to them than we do.
