Modeling the Clinton Vote

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts the outcomes of the March 15 election:

Based on the race and region model, we can predict that Hillary Clinton will win three states and Bernie Sanders will win two states on March 15. Clinton is predicted to receive between 65% and 67% of the vote in North Carolina, between 64% and 66% of the vote in Florida, between 52% and 54% of the vote in Illinois, between 46% and 48% of the vote in Ohio and between 45% and 47% percent of the vote in Missouri.

They’re using a simple model, based on just two variables: the percentage of black voters and a dummy variable for region. Their conclusion:

Leaving these important caveats aside, our results suggest that Bernie Sanders is likely to present a strong challenge to Hillary Clinton in the remaining Democratic primaries. Clinton has had a big advantage in the nomination race thus far because so many of the contests have been in the South. After next Tuesday, however, there will be no more primaries in the South. Based on the results presented here, she will be favored over Sanders only in non-southern states in which the nonwhite share of the Democratic primary electorate is at least 40 percent. The key question may be whether the huge delegate lead she has built up by winning southern primaries by landslide margins will be enough to sustain her through the rest of the primary season.

which points to potential Clinton weakness in the general election. Unless you think that Hillary Clinton is going to carry a lot of Southern states in the general election.