October 1, 2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.
It is presently around 10:00pm there. I would be surprised if there were not some decisive action in Hong Kong very, very soon.
October 1, 2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.
It is presently around 10:00pm there. I would be surprised if there were not some decisive action in Hong Kong very, very soon.
In 1989, the crackdown came after Gorbachev’s visit.
On the other hand — Taiwan’s election is in Jan; if I were Xi, it is worth staying my hand to keep the Taiwan strait stable.
IMO Xi will wait until he see how the impeachment of Trump progresses. If Trump’s removal seems certain, the tanks will roll and blood will spill. If Impeachment stalls, he’ll wait until after the 2020 election unless the Democrats look certain to be defeated, upon which he’ll crush HK and crush the Democratic party congressional hopes as punishment for failing to remove Trump. Another possible deadline is the Canadian general election coming up. If Trudeau goes down, that might be a trigger for populace suppression and damn the collateral damage.
If Trudeau is defeated I would think that would bode well for the passage of the USMCA. And, with that trade deal finally fulfilled that leaves China facing trade deals going on around them, which may create an incentive to get a deal done with the US, sooner rather than later.
Brutally clamping down on Hong Kong is something I think the Chinese are reluctant to do, considering the spotlight is shinning directly on how they behave to a populace that has the world’s sympathy. Furthermore, the US has stated they are seeing how China honors it’s deals with HK, as they negotiate their own deal with China. There are lots of balls in the air to consider….
Will the terrible brutality common in human history be able to continue in the spotlight of technological innovation in communications?
I, too, expected some action by the CCP today. So far, nothing.
It is not beyond possibility that Xi will just adopt a policy of malign neglect, just so long as the demonstrators/rioters do not get too far out of hand. Right now the young demonstrators/rioters are exhibiting a fair bit of violence and vandalism, which is alienating their elders.
The real motivation of the young is their economic plight. Housing is stratospherically expensive, good jobs are few, and everything is controlled by a corrupt oligarchy.
The demonstrations/riots are highly organized and well-led, and there seems to be foreign money involved, almost certainly American. Shades of Ukraine and Georgia.
Some other blog (bloody shovel 2?) pointed out that Hong Kong is actually a financial backwater these days, and that several mainland cities have surpassed it in importance and have significantly higher standards of living. Xi can probably let Hong Kong fester and rot on the vine without any great loss.
It will make it more difficult for those who actually care about what other people think to maintain their hypocrisy. It will have no effect on the most autocratic, dictatorial, and authoritarian regimes. Kim Jong-Un can prevent his own people from knowing who he really is and doesn’t care what the rest of the world thinks.
In other words it’s a risk for liberal democracies.