I didn’t make a lot of predictions last year. Things have just gotten too weird. One of the few I did make, that Barack Obama’s approval rating would rise at least 5 points (as determined by Gallup) and Donald Trump’s would fall by at least 5, has happened.
I’m still avoiding predictions. The Dow could go up. It could crash. The economy could boom. It could bust. We could have a year of relative peace. There could be a global apocalypse. I just have no idea. The closest thing to predictions I’ll venture are that Trump won’t be impeached and that the major media outlets will at least maintain their present level of hysteria.
However, I’m interested in hearing what you think will happen. Make your predictions here.
As the tax cuts kick in, especially those for business, we will see an extraordinary economic boom–5% growth or better.
For 2018, for the quarter after the cuts take effect, or for the quarter after that?
1. It won’t be a good year for the reputations of Obama, Hillary, Justice or the FBI.
2. Coke will teach the world to sing in perfect harmony………
2018 Elections:
Democrats net 21 seats in the House, leaving slim Republican majority.
Republicans net 3 seats in the Senate.
For the House predictions, I looked at Wikipedia’s summary of election predictions from Cook, Rothenberg and Sabato. I assumed Democrats would hold 100% of their seats, and the Republicans would lose any seat rated as tossup or leans D by any one of those three.
Drew will continue as the poster boy for ressentiment in these pages.
I think there will be a housing and/or stock market reset this coming year. Democrats will blame the tax cuts, Republicans will claim the downturn would have been much worse without them.
Nothing of substance will happen with North Korea and there will be no war. North Korea will test another boosted/hydrogen weapon.
Mueller’s investigation will wrap up a no one will be happy. The result will be less than either the Democrats or Trump supporters want – ie. there will be a few things that stick to Trump or his close associates but there won’t be anything on the scale of what Democrats are hoping for.
We will begin to see some Democrats position themselves for a presidential run. We’re already seeing a bit of this, but it will be much more obvious this year. Far Future prediction – the eventual nomination will not be a baby boomer.
If that holds true, there will be no joy in Mudville. I can practically hear the complaints about voter suppression already.
It certainly won’t be a member of the Silent Generation or someone on the cusp of the Silent Generation and Baby Boom. Which would cut Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and maybe Elizabeth Warren out. That’s the challenge for the Democrats. Their bench is pretty shallow right about now. State elections have consequences, too, and losing as many elections for state offices during Obama’s terms as they did has had serious implications for the future. You’ve either got to go to California/New York or down to the city level for candidates.
As a side note I’m hearing lots of complaints these days about the Baby Boomers but look at the Democratic Congressional leadership! The only Baby Boomer in the bunch is Chuck Schumer. The rest are Silent Generation—that’s what Millennials should be complaining about. They’re misdirecting their fire.
“Their bench is pretty shallow right about now. State elections have consequences, too, and losing as many elections for state offices during Obama’s terms as they did has had serious implications for the future.”
I agree, but they have a big party and will find someone. Pres. Obama came out of nowhere to win – I bet there are a lot of sleepers in the party who would be competitive if given the chance. There should be greater opportunities for them now that the Clinton machine isn’t controlling the party anymore.
I agree and have written as much myself. However, that “someone” is likely to have little or no national experience. I’m of mixed mind as to whether that’s good or bad.
It sure doesn’t look that way from where I’m sitting. The FBI and Justice Dept. folks that the Trumpers are complaining about these days are mostly Clintonistas. The head of the DNC is a Clintonista. And Chicago’s mayor is a Clintonista. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if I didn’t have the choice between Donald Trump and Rahm Emanuel for president in 2020.
@Andy, while I mostly agree with you on the Mueller’s investigation, I was thinking about predicting that his investigation won’t conclude next year, but if it does he’ll issue a report after the elections. I think the scope of his investigation is too broad and the cast of potential characters too shady.
If Mueller’s investigation ends in 2018, all I can say is what kind of a lawyer is he, anyway?
PD,
You could be right and it’s hard to know given we don’t know where the investigation will lead.
Dave,
“However, that “someone†is likely to have little or no national experience.”
We can only hope.
Putin will be elected to his final term; after the election the true contest begins, to be Putin’s successor and the next leader of Russia.
The looming train wreck of NAFTA negotiations will finally jump the rails and collapse. President Trump will try to withdraw from the deal, exposing big rifts within the two parties.
North Korea will go through an increasingly strict set of sanctions (including a cutoff in oil) that brings its economies to its knees but it continues ICBM tests.
– Race riots in the buildup to the 2018 elections. The committed Republicans will blame BLM, the committed Democrats will blame alt-right neonazis, and I don’t know where the fuzzy middle lands — they want themselves some law and order, but they also hate Nazis. The fuzzy middle decides the House.
– ICE agents ambushed and killed.
– Republicans rally around a disgusting nominee for something, on the level of a child molester, and they win. Democrats push someone aside for similar reasons, and lose a safe seat.
– Republicans try and fail to cut Medicare or Social Security.
– A surprising independence movement in Europe — Bavarian? — gains traction.
– Complete collapse of ISIS leaves a power vacuum that causes something worse to pop up in Syria.
– More saber rattling in Korea, and someone loses an aircraft, but it doesn’t go to full scale war. No major nuclear tests in North Korea, since their test mountain is broken, but more ICBM tests.
– Iran kicks out UN weapons inspectors after a Trump tweet, realizing that nuclear weapons are why North Korea is still safe.
– A big win for terrorists. I’m thinking either a sarin gas attack in Israel, or the US.
– Donald Trump has a heart attack while sitting on the toilet, but does not die. He will remain as a figure head while a more active Pence starts being less incompetent. 2019 and 2020 are going to be bad.
– No impeachment. Mueller gets fired. Enterprising state prosecutor indicts Jared Kushner for money laundering.
– DOW crash, Trump blames it on Obama despite having taken credit for the rise up to that point.
– Genocide. At least one.
– We will all discover that we are optimists, when our most cynical expectations for the worst are exceeded by reality.
“President Trump will try to withdraw from the deal, exposing big rifts within the two parties.”
Big rifts within the Republican party, I’d think. American farmers, strongly Republican-leaning ( if not overwhelmingly so) have come to depend on NAFTA exports to an extent not generally recognized (google, ‘american farmers and nafta’). If Trump blows up the agreement, or tries to, I would look for Oz-sized political storms in the farm belt.
Pop psychology isn’t your thing, Sam.