Losing Control for the Next Decade

The editors of the Wall Street Journal summarize the “downballot” results of the election:

Democrats went into this election with 39 legislative chambers, 19 statehouses and 15 trifectas. The GOP boasted 59 legislative chambers, 29 statehouses and 21 trifectas. Democrats aimed to flip the legislatures in North Carolina and Arizona and chambers in Texas, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Iowa.

They came up short everywhere. Democrats didn’t pick up a single new chamber or governorship while Republicans won two more trifectas in Montana and New Hampshire by flipping the governorship in the former and both legislative chambers in the latter. Oh, and Republicans expanded legislative majorities in Florida and North Carolina.

Some races in Arizona are still too close to call, but an independent commission will draw its new maps and GOP Gov. Doug Ducey can stop Democrats from turning the state into California without the beach. Voters in Michigan also recently approved a referendum creating redistricting commissions. Republicans can nonetheless continue to use their statehouse majorities to advance more reforms and set examples of sound governance.

They’re actually understating the magnitude of the loss. A half dozen Blue States including California, Illinois, New York, and Rhode Island are on track to lose seats in the coming reapportionment while the Red Texas and Florida will gain seats. There will be some rationalization of that as the “purpling” of those two states but that doesn’t change the reality: control of redistricting not only will give Republicans greater control over the electoral map but reapportionment will end up pitting incumbent Democrats against one another.

9 comments… add one
  • jan Link

    I guess that means democrats can gloat about achieving their intense but short term goal of getting rid of their political nemesis——> Trump. But, in the long term they may have disadvantaged themselves of ruling as a national party powerhouse, like they do in CA.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    I don’t know, the current trends seem advantageous to Democrats.

    The blue states stay blue, turn the most populous red states purple and finally blue (Colorado, Virginia). Republicans aren’t seeing many (perhaps none) blue states turning redder to compensate.

    One can make a very plausible argument that Democrats may have locked in a decade or longer majority in the electoral college + house.

  • jan Link

    I probably sound “pollyannish” in my optimistic forecast about Dems losing rather than gaining power. However, I wonder if Trump’s reign, even if for only 4 years, opened a Pandora’s Box of awareness to minorities and the underclass how disingenuous the policies of the left wing Dems really are. Instead of groveling for government handouts, Trump opened up opportunity zones, encouraged and supplied work for those without degrees or with prison records. It wasn’t lip service he gave, but real life shots and second chances to people who were used to be given welfare checks by the Dems. Are these folks going to be satisfied with going back to the Biden/Obama days of help? Or, are they going to want more of what a Trump presidency had to offer?

    This also is applicable to the flyover country people. They did not feel government represented their best interests. Instead it was the intellectual left, the rich tech and Hollywood people, Wall Street, and multi national corporations who donated and have benefited more from the democrat party. Just look at the massive donations from the rich injected into democrat races all over the country. Trump’s financials were feathered mainly by small donors, much like Bernie Sanders. It just shows the party constituencies have changed, with the Dems shilling for the rich and the GOP, under Trump, became the face of middle class, and blue collar American workers.

    In 2022 & 2024 I wouldn’t be surprised if you see such a demographic shift hold, if the Conservative party continues to support more authentic Trump- like candidates for office.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    “blue collar American workers.“
    Joe Biden has pretty much made a career of championing them, but interestingly, they weren’t even part of his platform.
    Handing authority over the American economy to the Paris climate accord will be his first act, “on day one “.
    Day two, ending energy independence for the US.
    Day three, check with President Obama on concessions and reparations for the Iranians.
    This may be my over-reaction but I think it’s in line with the expectations of the people who elected him.

  • Grey Shambler Link

    Trump- like candidates for office.

    Yes, it’s cool again for candidates to campaign as pro-American.

  • As I’ve pointed out before, “pro-American” means different things to different people. Progressives see themselves as pro-American, too.

  • steve Link

    Keep trying Dave. Conservatives dont believe that people on the left are real Americans.

    “Handing authority over the American economy to the Paris climate accord will be his first act, “on day one “.
    Day two, ending energy independence for the US.
    Day three, check with President Obama on concessions and reparations for the Iranians.”

    Way off.

    Day one, Q Anon was right. We can now openly barbecue the children we have been eating. I have a 2 y/o marinating right now.

    Day 2. We are doing away with energy in any form at all. Outlawing the wheel too. Plan to walk everywhere barefoot and wear animal skins, or at least the ones PETA approves.

    Day 3.Reparations for Blacks, American Indians, Chinese, Mexicans (we took Texas away), Russians (we screwed them on Alaska), the French (screwed them on the LA purchase), plus Iran. Really, our plan is to give away the whole darn country.

    Steve

  • Grey Shambler Link

    Handing authority over the American economy to the Paris climate accord will be his first act, “on day one “.
    But But But Steve.

    He said it.

  • steve Link

    Citation please. He did not say he was handing over authority of the American economy. If you just make up stuff you can prove anything.

    Steve

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