or blow up the world, maybe. I agree with John Kasich’s op-ed in the Washington Post cautioning against “loose talk about war with North Korea”:
This increasingly hot war of words — including loose talk about the probability of war — does nothing to bring us closer to where we need to be on North Korea, especially when military options short of war remain on the table. In fact, with millions of lives at stake, waging a war of words is a distraction from the serious task at hand. Any kind of war — especially nuclear war — should not be an option until all other options are exhausted. And, in the case of North Korea, there are several roads not yet taken.
However, I am not as sanguine as he about the prospects for us starting down those roads. For example:
Second, none of this will work without more pressure to hold the reluctant Chinese government accountable for the commitments it has made and to target more Chinese entities that support the North Korean government. The overwhelming majority of North Korea’s trade — 90 percent — is with or facilitated by China, and despite agreed-upon U.N. sanctions, much of this economic activity continues. Actions should include targeting a greater number of Chinese banks that deal with North Korea, fining their U.S. subsidiaries and freezing their U.S. assets.
Sanctioning Chinese banks means sanctioning the Chinese government. Has anyone noticed our showing any signs of a willingness to do that? I haven’t and I doubt that we will.
I also haven’t seen many signs of our steeling ourselves to what a war with North Korea would actually look like. Not to put too fine a point on it but it would either mean the needless deaths of thousands or even millions of Americans, the deaths of a very large number of South Koreans and Japanese, or the deaths of 25 million North Koreans (or possibly all three).
Makes for interesting times doesn’t it? OTOH, you have the MAGA folks who want the US to be wealthy again and have 4% growth. (Taking them at their word.) Hard to do that if you start sanctioning China. OTOH, you have the MAGA folks who want the US to “stand up” to N Korea, and war is just fine. Not sure how you reconcile this.
Steve
The Chinese are not the problem. They are not preventing a solution to the crisis. For that matter, neither are the North Koreans. We are the problem. We refuse to negotiate and merely make demands and threats. That hasn’t worked uo to now; it will not induce the North to given up its deterrent; and ir will lead to world war, guaranteed.
We know what Kim wants: he wants security for himself, his family and his regime. He knows what happened to Gaddafi and Hussein, and he won’t let it happen to him and his.
The crisis can be resolved peacefully (a key Chinese demand) if we sign a peace treaty with the North that includes iron-clad guarantees for its security. China, Russia, Japan and South Korea will have to be co-guarantors, and it may require Chinese and Russian troops on th DMZ and the removal of American forces from the South. We will have to BUY the nukes and missiles, the manufacturing facilities and materials, and the scientists, engineers and technicians involved will have to emigrate (not to Iran). I expect the cost will be at least $1T, cheaper than dozens of burning American cities.
Until that deal is on the table, the North will not budge, and global war is the only alternative.
I’m glad you’re not in charge. We would be shoveling tribute every where.
“We refuse to negotiate and merely make demands and threats. ”
That’s simply not true.
If The Norks can hack us, we can hack them. Goal being to spread distrust within Kim’s inner circle, someone’s turned against us for money. Who? Increase Kim’s killing the advisers he can’t trust, try to make that ALL of them, goal being to make his generals believe they and their families best hope is a coup. Keep that up until his regime cracks up. That’s what I’d do.