Along similar lines is this post by Mohammed Soliman at the
Despite the optimistic aspirations in Washington that the collective West could carry the burden of dual containment against China and Russia, it will ultimately fall on Washington alone to pursue this resource-consuming strategy to maintain global primacy. The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent a clear message that the United States could no longer prevent revisionist powers from challenging the global order that Washington had established and committed to uphold after World War II. With America’s position as the center of the global order, it is currently navigating a significant transformation marked by a gradual shift of global power towards the East and Asia more broadly. In response to these evolving dynamics, the United States must exhibit adaptability and embrace the necessity of adjusting rather than stubbornly resisting these geopolitical changes. As a nation, it is crucial for the United States to acknowledge the inherent limitations, cost, and unsustainability of pursuing global primacy or an expansive definition of American interests and responsibilities. Washington can’t do everything everywhere, all at once.
It is the überhawks and believers in American hegemony who have gotten us into the fix we’re in. I don’t expect them to get us out of it. I don’t know what will happen but it is unlikely to be good.
My only real hope right now is for the special providence that looks over fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.
When have we stopped Russia or China from invading someplace? They freely invaded Afghanistan and Georgia. Tibet?
We react after the fact, sometimes.
Steve
It is the überhawks and believers in American hegemony who have gotten us into the fix we’re in.
I doubt they think we are in a fix. In fact, they think we are in the “catbird seat”.
What I mean by “the fix we’re in” is that
a) we have far too many military commitments
b) our notional allies are NOT pulling their own weight–indeed, they’re depending on us
c) we have neither the military nor economic power to defend ourselves and all of our notional allies, too
As of 2021, the US maintained around 750 military bases in over 80 countries, three times the number of all other nations combined.
Surprisingly, with those numbers and almost a trillion dollar defense budget, we can’t bend the world to our will.
We can, however, achieve air superiority almost anywhere, and maintain it at will.
It’s working, but we’re looking more and more like the world’s insecure landlords and less and less like a good neighbor, trading partner, or even the model for developing nations we like to believe that we are.
The problem is many if not most policy makers and influencers in Washington disagree with (a) and (c).
Afterall, look at our economy. The US can do 8% budget deficits, have 3% unemployment, and crush inflation from 9% to 3% without triggering a recession (I tease, we have hidden vast costs that will need to be repaid).
On the part about notional allies NOT pulling their own weight; there’s a genuine tradeoff. The more capable a country is defense wise; the more likely they will pursue “strategic autonomy” in ways that are sideways to antithetical to US interests.
It boils down to spending on security is a genuine cost. Countries bear the cost because they value the benefit it confers (ability to make independent decisions). Look at France, our most capable ally militarily. Also the one whose President talks about “strategic autonomy” and whose diplomacy to China raised all sorts of eyebrows in Washington.