At DefenseOne Thomas Corbett, Ma Xiu, and Peter W. Singer ask a very good question. What lessons is China taking from the Ukraine War? Unfortunately, the answers they provide aren’t particularly satisfying:
Yet, despite the reorganization of the PLA and widespread prosecution of corruption cases, it still appears to be a major issue. Anti-corruption efforts are ongoing, with Chinese Gen. Zhang Youxia recently calling for innovative measures to keep up the fight. But the fact that Fu Zhenghua, the man brought in to take down the corrupt former security chief Zhou Yongkang, is himself now under investigation for corruption does not bode well for the long-term effectiveness of China’s efforts. The troubled invasion of Ukraine provides a stark real-world example to Xi, the CCP, and PLA about the impact corruption can have on military effectiveness, and will no doubt cause them to redouble their anti-corruption efforts with a newfound urgency. However given its similar authoritarian system and emphasis on career advancement through patronage, systemic corruption may be baked into the system.
Finally, there is the strategic issue of Beijing’s reaction to the global sanctions that have hit the Russian ruble and economy. The swift and severe economic retaliation of the U.S., EU, and others took Moscow by surprise. Even more unexpected was the rapid withdrawal of almost 500 global corporations, pushed on by an effective effort at naming and shaming them into acting to protect their own brands. A longer-term effort targeting essential elements of Russia’s defense industry will hamstring it for years.
However, I have a different question which I think is equally good. What are the lessons that Taiwan is taking from the Russian invasion of Ukraine? I have no idea but I would certainly like to know the answer.
Taiwan is probably learning a lot. First, elect a comedian. Next, buy lots of portable missiles. Next, stock up on arms in general and night goggles in particular. Resupply will be hard. Next, have an information war plan. Russia has been very good at disruptive information war but they kind of suck when trying to put out a positive message about themselves. Maybe its not possible?
I would expect China to learn to concentrate on achieving air superiority sooner, but if you really only started emphasizing CAS back in 2015 I think it unlikely they would be good at it by now. Logistics will also be an issue as they need to bring everything by boat. OTOH that probably makes it harder to resupply from the US.
Looking at the numbers it looks to me the largest discrepancy that may matter is the relative size of the navies. I wonder if China could manage a sea siege?
Steve