And piling onto the bad news for forecasters comes this tidbit from Minnesota Public Radio:
The pace of Minnesota’s COVID-19 outbreak has slowed significantly in recent weeks — though thousands remain sick and there’s no guarantee the situation will continue to improve.
On Sunday, Minnesota reported 311 new cases and 15 new deaths from COVID-19; the net increase in cases from Saturday was 299, as the state received more information and updated previous days’ data.
Over the past week, the state has averaged less than 400 new cases per day — still a lot, but far less than the 700 daily cases the state was seeing in late May. And this decline in new cases has happened even as the state tests more people for the disease: an average of more than 10,000 per day, up from about 7,500 per day in late May.
and, importantly, the decline has continued despite the mass demonstrations over the last several weeks in Minneapolis. Note that it doesn’t say what the decline would have been without the protests or whether the protests have made no difference in the number of cases. But it’s another case in which predictions of disaster have not been borne out by events.
Surely people have seen the critique of the media driven reports of “spikes” in southern states. It has all but been totally dismantled in days. The coming-off-delayed-health-care-appointments and their attendant testing increasing the reported case numbers. Data cumulative aggregation vs run rates. Essentially zero new hospitalization rates vs cumulative. Not to mention putting the low numbers into perspective.
This is propaganda of the worst kind.
But OMB’s rally in Tulsa coming up will kill everyone in the city, guaranteed / sarc
“the decline has continued despite the mass demonstrations over the last several weeks in Minneapolis. ”
Thought at the time that the reactions to opening up the beaches was probably overwrought. One of the reasons the flu goes away during the summer is that people get outside. With a bunch of young people outside I would have guessed the risk is low. As to Trump’s rallies, there look to be a lot of older people. It would be indoors, but the caveat there is that would be in an auditorium. If a large space like that behaves more like being outdoors then it should be OK. If not, then fewer Trump voters.
Steve