I don’t have a lengthy point to make in this post. Just one quick insight.
We might entertain the possibility that the amount of territory controlled by DAESH doesn’t make much difference (as long as it’s not zero and maybe even then) because what matters is their business model. They will keep going and keep on inspiring young Muslims who must be in desperate need of inspiration if that’s what they turn to as long as their finances last.
DAESH’s revenues come from a number of sources: loot, taxes from the territories they’ve conquered, oil revenues, revenues from other contraband (drugs, weapons, human trafficking, and probably others), and donations (mostly from wealthy Gulf Arabs). Cutting them off from the international banking system as the UN Security Council has been debating is just wishful thinking. It won’t have much impact.
They’ll keep going as long as they can finance their operations. Just a thought.
They might go away, but their successor will come along. If we can get good at stopping funding it should make it more difficult for the next group. (We could also disrupt their funding by not giving them so many weapons. They now have big chunk of what we left for the Iraqis. We can be pretty sure they will claim what we leave behind for the Afghan army.)
Steve