Max Boot and the editors of the Wall Street Journal echo some of the caution I advised in my piece yesterday on the negotiations with North Korea.
Boot
Yes, it’s a good thing the two Korean leaders are meeting and talking. It is certainly better than the saber-rattling we saw last year, with North Korea testing nuclear weapons and missiles, and President Trump responding with threats to rain down “fire and fury.â€
But let’s not imagine that Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un are making “historic†breakthroughs with their summit declaration. It is full of lofty but empty language promising “no more war on the Korean Peninsula.†The two leaders agreed to transform the demilitarized zone — actually the most heavily militarized area in the world — into a “peace zone,†and to conclude the Korean War with a “robust peace regime.†They even pledged a “nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.â€
Yada, yada, yada. Upon closer examination, there is very little of substance here — certainly nothing to justify Trump’s hyperbolic tweet: “KOREAN WAR TO END! The United States, and all of its GREAT people, should be very proud of what is now taking place in Korea!â€
Wall Street Journal
The hope is that Kim Jong Un has had a major change of heart, perhaps due to pressure from sanctions and China. But Kim has been even more aggressive than his forbears, making the pursuit of nuclear weapons a sacred duty of the state. Five years ago he declared the 1953 Armistice that suspended the Korean War null and void, and South Korean intelligence believes he was behind the 2010 attacks.
So why is President Moon offering the North diplomatic relief from the U.S. campaign of maximum pressure? He was chief of staff to left-wing former President Roh Moo-hyun, and like Roh he wants to play a “balancing role†between the U.S. and the North. His chief of staff, Im Jong-seok, was a follower of North Korean ideology and worked as an agent for the North as recently as 2005, collecting the regime’s intellectual property royalties in the South, according to his autobiography.
Mr. Moon may care less about denuclearizing the North than using engagement and money to entice the two nations into a confederation without a change in governance. To that end, he could be attempting to draw Mr. Trump into a repeat of the mistakes that Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush made that rewarded the North for promises of denuclearization that never materialized.
Let me submit something for your consideration. There’s a parallel between what Kim Jong Un is doing and the recent visit to Washington by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Both are being portrayed as “liberalizers” when they’re really engaged in asymmetric warfare. They’re inserting themselves and trying to control our OODA loop.
“They’re inserting themselves and trying to control our OODA loop.”
I think it more likely that Trump is locked and loaded and on their six. I am reminded of the release of the Iranian hostages just prior to RR becoming Commander in Chief.
I think predictions are too early, but this is an opportunity that should be allowed to play out.
A few thoughts though. North Korea has long sought to divide the US-ROK alliance – it’s been a central goal of their foreign policy for a very long time. Often this strategy has relied on trying to make a separate peace with the US and then using its military might to bully the South into concessions. North Korea may finally be making a major move in the other direction – a separate peace with the south that would isolate and limit the US.
The problem with Boot and the WSJ is they’ve historically been against any kind of deal unless the other side completely capitulates. If there is a deal to be had between North Korea and the US, it won’t meet this standard.
If this ends in tears; it will be the fraction in South Korea who advocated for “sunshine†policy vis a vis the North who will bear the consequence. It could easily lead to a generation in the wilderness – witness the Labor party in Israel.
Hope someone reminds President Moon of the stakes for him and his party as they talk of peace.
What I mean is the South Koreans previous round of Sunshine policy was a failure; it gave North Koreans cash for nothing in return.
This time it’s important that the North Koreans give something real on the nukes front before the US and South Korea give cash, etc.
The reconciliation is more substantive than people think. Moon is part of the anti-American wing of South Korean politics, and his desire to reunite the peninsula and expel the Americans is real. Some of their agreements will no doubtedly be secret, especially for us. What unfolds might be an unpleasant surprise.
A Korea state in an alliance with the universally hated and despised Japanese is an anomaly that cannot last.