Events tend to harden presidents, not soften them. Bush is about as hard as he can get with his certitude and his baggage, as are the major players in his administration. It’s time to reset the political rule set known as party control of the Executive Branch.
Thomas Barnett
It is widely held that too much wine will dull a man’s desire. Indeed it will—in a dull man.
John Osborne
Dr. Thomas Barnett, author of The Pentagon’s New Map has written a strong endorsement of John Kerry for president. His argument, in a nutshell, is that although Bush was the right man for the last four years, Kerry is the right man for the next four years.
TM Lutas has written an interesting response to Dr. Barnett, analyzing the stiffening of presidential resolve in foreign policy matters over the last twenty or so years. His tentative conclusion is that Republicans moderate over time, Democrats stiffen. I think there is another interpretation as I mentioned here: presidents tend to do that which will consolidate their power and strengthen their re-election prospects.
But the one thing that I think we can all agree is that whoever is elected two weeks from today, he is likely to remain the person that he is. The challenge for each of us is to assess who each of the candidates really is to the best of our abilities and make our decision on that basis. I sincerely wish I could give you an answer to this question. I don’t have one.
One of the very best things about Barnett’s book is that it has forced me to consider the future of the world and America’s role in shaping that future, what Walter Russell Mead has called “America’s Grand Strategy” as I mentioned here, but to consider it in the light of how I wish it to be and what I wish America’s role to be. I fear that I am by temperament more inclined to consider what I don’t want to happen and what I think can be done to prevent it.
In his conclusion Barnett lists ten steps toward the future that he believes is worth creating:
- Re-create Iraq as a functioning, connected society within the global economy.
- Kim Jong Il must be removed from power and Korea must be reunited.
- The mullahs in Iran must be overthrown and Iran needs to be more connected to the Core
- There should be a Free Trade Area of the Americas.
- There should be a major reform and liberalization of the educational systems in the Middle East.
- Ties with China should be strengthened.
- There should be an Asian equivalent to NATO (and NAFTA).
- There should be a Core-wide security alliance.
- The United States should admit additional states (most likely from Canada and Mexico but possibly non-contiguous).
- Africa needs to be rehabilitated.
Whether you agree or disagree with any or all of these steps, it’s clear that they will need a lot of work to accomplish. None of them will just happen by themselves. So, I ask Dr. Barnett, as Joe Katzman of Winds of Change asked us in his clever post John Kerry, Owen Wilson, and Facing Reality, what in John Kerry’s history, character, or policies makes you believe that John Kerry has any interest whatsoever in any of these steps, let alone the energy, determination, and fixity of will required to actually accomplish any of them?
Mr. Kerry has repeatedly vowed to defend America if she is attacked and I accept him at his word. Will reaction accomplish any of the first three steps? Will diplomacy alone achieve any of these three steps? Can the members of the EU (other than those already on board) be further enlisted to accomplish them? I don’t see even a hint of any of these things.
Mr. Kerry’s position on international trade focuses on fair trade rather than free trade. This position is a futile Carteresque attempt to alter the social policies of our trading partners. Hint to Mr. Kerry: we don’t have the guts, sticktoitiveness, or leverage to do this with China. Quite to the contrary, they’ve got the leverage on us.
I could continue on down Dr. Barnett’s list.
Instead I’ll ask Dr. Barnett the question, since Mr. Kerry is pretty obviously either indifferent or antagonistic to your steps how would his presidency advance a future that’s worth creating?
UPDATE: Submitted to Beltway Traffic Jam.
