Related to the previous post, Japan has approved a new military budget that is a significant departure from the past. From the Wall Street Journal report by Alastair Gale and Chieko Tsuneoka:
Releasing its long-awaited military strategy for the next decade, Tokyo said Friday that by fiscal 2027, it would spend about 2% of its gross domestic product on defense, up from about 1% now. Based on current GDP, that would bring annual spending to the equivalent of around $80 billion, putting Japan third in the world behind the U.S. and China.
Around $3.7 billion is earmarked over the next five years for missile systems, including American Tomahawk missiles, which would give Japan the ability to target foreign military facilities if an attack appeared imminent. That is a turnaround from Tokyo’s postwar pacifist outlook, enshrined in its war-renouncing constitution, which made it wary of threatening other countries.
The new strategy “marks a major transformation of our postwar security policy,†said Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at a news conference. The strategy said the missile plans and other steps would warn potential aggressors such as China, North Korea and Russia that it would be too costly to attack Japan.
I don’t believe that Japan is acting as a lackey to U. S. aggression in this. It is rather obviously Japan’s reaction to China’s military buildup and “wolf warrior diplomacy”. Additionally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must have caused the Japanese to hear footsteps.
Consider:
Shedding Tokyo’s usual reticence over China, the strategy released Friday includes a long list of complaints about Beijing’s conduct, including its close ties with Russia and its incursions near Japanese-held islands.
Whatever its cause I suspect the Chinese will look at this development with some foreboding. It is just barely within living memory but a militaristic Japan inflicted considerable suffering on China 85 years ago. And as we should not forget the Japanese can be fearsome opponents.
The US, or at least factions in the US, have been pushing for Japan and Germany to re-arm. Given Russian and Chinese actions probably a good idea but this has to make at least some of us have second thoughts given the history.
Steve
I have hinted before that Japan abandoning pacifism would be the result of continual sabre-rattling by China and provocations by North Korea.
On the other hand; from an American angle I don’t think its a positive. Japan has ongoing territorial disputes with Russia, South Korea, China and Taiwan. And three key polities for American policy in Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines) don’t exactly have warm memories of Japanese imperialism.
One that should be said as well. How is Japan going to pay for this? Their debt to GDP ratio is 230%. Their GDP per capita has been frozen around $40K for 28 years. Even 1% of GDP on defense maybe too much considering the economy. Japan could sell its overseas assets ($3 trillion) to fund this but that would have serious effects on the countries of those assets (mainly the US).
Japan also has a constitutional problem with rearmament. They are not supposed to build offensive weapons, which the Tomahawks clearly are. They are also prohibited from possessing air craft carriers, but they do, and they call them destroyers.
One has to wonder if a fully rearmed Germany or Japan would remain US allies. I kind of doubt it. Both countries have an anti-American faction. During the hey day of the USSR, Tokyo regularly saw anti-American street demonstrations.
One also has to wonder if Germany and Japan might develop nuclear weapons and delivery systems. How would we respond to a few German Trident subs in the Atlantic, or to a Japanese carrier strike group and SSBN’s prowling the Pacific?