especially about the future.
I’ve basically given up making year-end predictions. Events are either completely obvious (the press will continue to whine about Trump) or impossible to predict accurately (will we enter a recession?). The closest thing I have to a prediction is that I don’t believe that the new Democratic House will distinguish itself.
Who will be the next mayor of Chicago? Probably Bill Daley, a discouraging thought. I don’t even have a solid idea of who my next alderman will be. I’m thinking of starting a neighborhood club to talk about it and learn how my neighbors are thinking.
Please make your predictions for the coming year here.
Yeah, I forecasting seems particularly difficult recently.
These are equal parts guesses and analytical prediction:
– Trump will be impeached but not removed from office.
– There will be no major legislation passed given current trends.
– As a consequence (and like most Presidents), Trump will retreat to foreign policy.
– There is a growing chance of some kind of crisis with China, likely precipitated by an unpredictable event, similar to the Hainan Island incident in 2001.
Most likely a Supreme court vacancy. A mild winter they’ll attribute to climate change. A wet spring, record crop yields, record low crop prices, alleviated by lower fuel prices. All bad things caused by Donald Trump and climate change. Bad news all around.
AS to China, IMHO, they think they can manage things to their advantage in the long run because of recent success. Don’t expect any radical moves or military adventures to come from there.
Some predictions are obvious, but
Trump and conservatives will continue to whine about the media.
There will be many oversight hearings in the House, but I will go out on a limb and predict that they won’t investigate the same incident 8 times, so the Benghazi record will remain intact.
RBG dies. Big pretend fight over the replacement. (GOP controls the process, just like it did with Kavanaugh.)
North Korea still has its nukes at the end of 2019 and we still have thousands of troops in Afghanistan. We still have troops in Syria.
Democrats have no clear front runner by the end of 2019 and they botch the debates.
No one emerges to make a serious challenge against Trump.
Mueller investigation shows no direct collusion with Trump but significant influences on some of his campaign staff and advisers. Trump despite promising to do so, still does not release his tax records.
A significant public official is shot and severely injured or killed.
Steve
“Trump and conservatives will continue to whine about the media.â€
* “ We’re not going to debate climate change, the existence of it. The earth is getting hotter and human activity is a major cause, period.” “We’re not going to give time to climate deniers,” Chuck Todd added. “The science is settled even if political opinion is not.”
* “ If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.†(Generally, attributed to Goebbels)
Clearly the simple folk need to shut up and surrender to their betters, especially in the fourth estate.
North Korea is a nuclear power and will remain that. Wouldn’t be surprised if Assad is paddling hard in that direction. Iran has or will have them within the next decade. Japan needs them now to forestall attack by North Korea. Venezuela now has long range nuclear bombers stationed on an island just offshore. No authoritarian leader in his right mind wants to be without them. If we turn our back on the K.S.A. and the Russians embrace the Royals, will there be nukes there as well?
I can’t imagine how proliferation can be stopped without accommodating the safety concerns of some very hideous rulers.
“Mueller investigation shows no direct collusion with Trump but significant influences on some of his campaign staff and advisers.â€
I think we need an investigation into the abysmal quality of cement footings in this country. Because those damned goalposts just keep moving all over the place.
Healthcare in Amerika will gradually be rationalized by the new rule requiring hospitals to publish their prices for treatment on the web. We still lack rules forcing doctors and pharmacies to publish their prices.
And we still need rules to force insurance providers to cover treatment overseas and a rule that all healthcare providers offer “favored-nation status” to all comers.
“. Because those damned goalposts just keep moving all over the place.”
I have always said here that it was unlikely that Trump himself colluded, so no goalpost moving here. Try again. If you look at the memo Rosenstein sent to Mueller, it specifically says the investigation is of the Trump campaign.
“* “ If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it”
This is the tactic of the deniers. Thanks for pointing it out.
Steve