One of the things that struck me in reading Eugene Robinson’s Washington Post column, reproduced with permission at The Moderate Voice
We can no longer pretend this isn’t happening. Donald Trump will very likely be the Republican nominee for president, and there is a nonzero chance he could win in November.
Trump won at least four of the primary contests Tuesday, including winner-take-all Florida. If you count Missouri, where he seems to have beaten Ted Cruz by a scant 1,726 votes, he won five out of six, losing only in John Kasich’s home state of Ohio. Cruz and Kasich are his only remaining rivals — all others have been vanquished — and Trump has won more primaries and convention delegates than the two of them put together.
If we were talking about a normal candidate, rather than a dangerous demagogue, we’d say he had pretty much sealed the deal for the nomination. But otherwise sensible people seem to be gambling on some kind of miracle — rather than focusing on what needs to be done to keep Trump out of the White House.
is just how much what the Democratic politicians, pundits, and journalists are saying and writing resembles what the Republican politicians, pundits, and journalists were saying and writing six months or so ago. It’s got to be right sometime, doesn’t it?
Of course he can’t win. His negatives are so high! This or that interest group won’t vote for him. Just keep saying that.
And bear in mind the large number of things that can happen over the next eight months that are out of Hillary Clinton’s control. And that for all the attacks she’s sustained over the last twenty years she will be facing attacks of a very different tenor, temper, and kind.
As we have devolved into a nation of fractured self interest-seekers, rather than unified problem-solvers, it has been difficult to measure what is happening in the country. Consequently, the punditry, along with much of the polling, has been all over the map. And, the erratic and sometimes combustible nature of the primaries, thus far, is simply a byproduct of not only the candidates we have to chose from but also the compressed frustration that is now being vented from a fed-up public at large.
is just how much what the Democratic politicians, pundits, and journalists are saying and writing resembles what the Republican politicians, pundits, and journalists were saying and writing six months or so ago.
No, it’s not. Six months ago, Trump was leading the polls for the nomination and Republican pundits were busy being impressed wtih Carly Fiorina. Now he’s winning the nomination and there’s an attempt to turn him into a candidate with a message that appeals to anyone outside the conservative bubble.
Your recollection is different from mine. My recollection is that they were saying he couldn’t possibly win the nomination because he wasn’t conservative enough, his negatives were too high, he had no experience in politics, and whatever other reason popped into their heads.
Had a long converstion with my sister last about the lost world of our youth in the 50s-60s. Then our father, a pipe fitter could raise five kids in modest upper working class comfort in Boston. Four of us worked our way through college. We all became solid middle class with only one wage earner.
None of that is possible now. All our children need two wage earners to survive, and nearly all had only two kids or less. Only five of 18 could afford college.
The grand kids have it much worse. None of them could afford college. Many live on thr edge of economic disaster, even with eberyone working. Most have low skill often part-time jobs, and they jump from one job to another regularly.
This is a family in decline. Nearly every one of them will vote for Trump.
His negatives in the GOP were not too high to keep him from getting a percentage of the vote. Pundits just believed that the base would be quashed and Bush and Rubio even though they were losing would emerge the victor. Well, didn’t happen. They also believed that the base would come to its senses, and not vote for somebody who was going to alienate everybody who was not white.
Of course if I’m wrong, and Trump somehow does manage to grab a big share of Hispanic voters and wins, then I’ll be pretty startled, because I don’t see that happening. I would definitely rethink a great deal of what I think about American politics. There will be a huge backlash against Hillary Clinton and her supporters.
But if Trump loses because he alienates everybody who is not white and working class, what will happen is nothing. Crickets. The people who supported Trump and thought he could win will blame it on minorities getting handouts and illegals voting and media conspiracies. There won’t be a single person who voted for Trump interested in how Trump backfired. Incredibly they will be even more confident the next time around.
I think it’s important to decompress that a little bit. The differences between now and then are that
1. There were jobs available for young people if they wanted them
2. The relationship between the cost of college tuition and what the jobs young people could get paid was such that they could pay the cost of attending college.
3. A single wage earner earned enough to support a wife and five kids in reasonable comfort and security.
4. There were jobs available for young people with college educations.
5. The jobs that were available for young people with college educations paid well enough to support a middle class lifestyle with only one wage earner.
Does that about cover it?
Your experience corresponds pretty well with mine. In addition to going to school full time I worked 30-40 hours a week to put myself through college. Between a small loan, a scholarship, and what I earned I managed. There wasn’t a lot left over but I didn’t ask my mom for anything. She had enough problems as it was raising my younger siblings on what she earned teaching.
I paid my college loans off within five years after leaving graduate school.
What makes you think that Trump needs Hispanic votes to win, MM? Keep in mind that we don’t elect presidents at large.
I think there’s truth in that, indeed, I’ve been kvetching about it for some time. Those who think that way have arithmetic on their side but not the reality of turnout, demographics, electoral votes, and how the population is distributed.
http://www.ianwelsh.net/why-poor-white-males-are-the-core-of-trumps-support/
Empathy from a hard leftist.
Here’s the key passage from that post:
I think you guys should read that Ian Welsh piece again because it’s a pretty good argument as to why Trump will lose in the general election.
This:
You make them this way, then you demonize them for it.
Trump does not talk to these people like he despises them. (Neither does Bernie.)
Clinton does. She’s pandering, she knows it, and it comes through. The disdain drips.
The quality of life for the average “white male†peaked in 1968. Then, you call them trash, they have almost no good jobs, and you’re surprised they’re angry? You think they aren’t human? You think they are Jesus, and can be treated like crap for longer than most of them have been alive and that there won’t be consequences? You think that because other people are treated even worse, they will sublimate their own mistreatment?
Worse, you marginalized them and then used them as your primary violent enforcers?
That’s not just immoral, that’s crazy stupid.
Remember, they don’t just hate people who are brown. They hate most rich whites. And by rich, they mean a lot more people than the actual rich.
Treat people like trash, and don’t be surprised when they come back to bite you..
Where are the votes for a class of people who have natural allies who they have alienated because of their skin color? I don’t see it. I see enough whites who are not in the south and who are not ready to riot backing slowly away from Trump along with everybody else.
In the end Trump will come to represent a terrible error by the people who supported him.
They needed a mensch rather than a rich asshole but they chose a rich asshole.
I’ve been reading Ian Welsh’s work for as long as I’ve been reading blog posts. I agree with his assessment of the treatment of the white working class. I think his attempt at psychoanalyzing them is cartoonish.
I agree, but so is Donald Trump’s. There are so many things a candidate with his support could be saying. He could be criticizing a system of Walmarts that forces decent people who manage these places to go out of their way to target their employees in order to appeal to their supervisors. He could say that education = guns for the upper middle class wherever they are and the more of it you can hoard and take for yourself the better off your future will be. Without saying anything about how whites are privileged, he could point out that blacks are even more screwed, wealth-wise, than whites, and that there must be some lesson in this.
But instead, he’s playing to a cartoon version of the white working class, and the people who are supporting him are eating it up.
…… he could point out that blacks are even more screwed, wealth-wise, than whites, and that there must be some lesson in this.
The lesson for blacks is to become independent, educated thinkers, rather than a dependable “firewall” for the democrat party. Make your vote count by looking at ballots as a multiple choice decision, becoming savvy to the issues and what candidates have to offer, rather than merely being a rubber-stamped voter who automatically inks democrat candidates. It will truly surprise the black community how they could increase not only their clout but also their circumstances should they have both parties genuinely vying for their support.
“Does that about cover it?”
Despite the data mills inflation assertions to the contrary, many of the goods that people actually buy as a weighted average of their total have increased in cost dramatically. Health care and housing, in addition to education come to mind.
Many goods and services that used to be luxuries or nonexistent now deplete household incomes as they have become perceived necessities. Eg. Cell phones, TVs, meals out, manicures, new and multiple cars, $6 hot dogs and bags of popcorn at the movies…….
Guarneri :
You are absolutely right, appeals to politicians are a waste of time.
But, consumer choice works every time. If 100,000 million people stop cell service, the price will drop. Unlikely. But if I stop cell service, my cost drops to zero.
jan- Had this same conversation with my Tea Party group recently, but we have added a couple of black people now. Their response to your kind of rant is that they are perfectly capable of thinking for themselves. While a lot of black people do not think much about their votes, it is also clear that a lot of white folks don’t either. What these two suggest is that would be nice if the GOP had something to offer they were interested in. Surprisingly, tax cuts for the wealthy just isn’t that alluring unless you are already a true believer.
Steve
Steve, raising taxes, more regulations, and raising subsidies for the poor hasn’t worked either. Treating people differently, because of their differences in skin color, also has not been a winner in minority employment stats.
Jan:
Black people are never, ever, ever going to listen to the party that denies the very legitimacy of the first black president. The GOP has made a home for racists. Black people are not going to move in. Neither will Latinos or gays or Asians or Jews or the young. Your party chose to identify with the past, to sneer at and denigrate anyone who is not white and straight and Christian.
So here’s a suggestion. Matthew 7: 3 And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?
4 Or how wilt thou say to thy brother, Let me pull out the mote out of thine eye; and, behold, a beam is in thine own eye?
5 Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother’s eye.
You belong to a party that welcomes and relies on the votes of racists. As long as that’s the case, fewer and fewer people will have anything to do with you.