The Guardian reports:
Joe Biden has now appeared at the podium in the East Room for his speech on Russia and Ukraine, after Vladimir Putin acknowledged the two self-proclaimed republics in Luhansk and Donetsk and ordered troops into the region.
The US president warned that Putin is “setting up a rationale to go much further†in Ukraine, predicting a larger-scale attack in the days to come.
“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,†Biden said.
I was wrong. Russia is invading Ukraine. I still have no idea of how this ends let alone ends well.
Whether or not it’s an invasion depends on whether you believe Donetsk and Luhansk are independent republics. Anyway, Putin’s recognition of their statehood gives him enormous room to maneuver: chess not checkers.
In his long speech he dwelt on the historic unity of Ukraine and Russia and on the brotherhood of Ukrainians and Russians. He is largely correct in his views. But they imply that the ultimate Russian goal is the re-unification of Ukraine and Russia. That implication is very strongly reinforced by Putin’s promise to prosecute those ethnic Ukrainians who murdered some 40 plus ethnic Russians by burning them to death in a surrounded building. That prosecution will require the occupation of the Odessa region.
Over the next several years, we will see the gradual reabsorption of much if not all of Ukraine into Russia. No doubt Poland and Hungary (and maybe Romania) will get pieces, too, the Galicia. All of this stems from America’s original sin of overthrowing Ukraine’s only legitimate, democratically elected president, Yanukovych, and installing the current junta.
More sanctions will be imposed on Russia, but it is essentially an economic autarky, and even the current sanctions are showing the effect of diminishing returns.
I think they’re oblasti. Regions.
The risks from escalation are serious.
Right now, things aren’t yet hot. I define that as when Ukrainian / Russian troops are shooting each other vs Ukrainian troops / separatist militias are shooting each other as occurs today (and in the past 8 years).
But if conflict does get hot , and Russian objectives are not “limited” — the US / NATO has made implied threats to arm an Ukraine insurgency. Given that a Russian counter-measure would be to interdict or destroy those supplies at Ukraine’s borders (which are all NATO countries), that’s an invitation for a direct war between Russia / NATO and all that implies.
Decision makers better be very careful with their words (even “off the record”) and actions here.
All eyes, all corporate news media are focused on a border invasion – that border belonging to Ukraine – thousands of miles away from the U.S. However, another border, that has been overwhelmingly breached for the past year, by millions of unvetted, multinational illegals, is the U.S.’s southern border, only a 100+ miles from my home. What are we doing over there, sending our military and making speeches, when we are letting the southern border invasion continue, unabated, over here?