At Russia Matters in an interview by Fyodor Lyukanov scholar Graham Allison says it’s time for Russia, Ukraine, and the United States to seek an “off-ramp” in the war in Ukraine:
FL: The situation today is not good at all. Would you recommend that the sides–I mean, first and foremost, Russia and the United States—escalate in order to deescalate afterwards?
GA: If it were up to me, if I were the adviser to the adults in both Moscow and Washington, I would say we’ve escalated far enough to see how bad things could become if we end up in a world where nuclear weapons are used. I think the fact that over seven decades now states have concluded that nuclear weapons are not usable as part of ordinary international relations between great nuclear powers is a significant factor in the fact that we have had seven decades without great-power war—something that’s historically very anomalous. So, I believe that where we are now, both for Putin’s Russia and for the Biden-led U.S. and the Western alliance, it’s time to search for an off-ramp for all the parties. And I know there’s some energy going into that by the governments and I wish there would be more. I think we’ve escalated far enough to settle at this point.
For the life of me, I can’t see what such an “off-ramp” might be at this point. The mere suggestion of leaving any smidgeon of Ukrainian territory in Russian hands is castigated as appeasement on the one hand and leaving Russia without the port of Sevastopol is very clearly not negotiable for the Russians. What “off-ramp”?
There is still a lot of fight left on both sides. I don’t think there will be any interest in an offramp until there’s a stalemate. And among the NATSEC elite in the US, anything short of total victory for Ukraine is something that simply can’t be discussed. That won’t change until events on the ground change. For all of Russia’s military and political problems – and there are many – I do not have much confidence that Ukraine can get back to the pre 2014 borders via the use of force.
The important point is that both sides keep escalating. We are in a tit-for-tat process. With the US and other NATO countries almost openly participating in the war, the possibility of a Russian attack on a NATO base or of an attack on a NATO drone or reconnaissance aircraft grows ever higher.
I can’t estimate probabilities, but if the current escalation process continues, a large-scale general war in Europe and North America is guaranteed.
Russia will not talk to the Europeans or Kiev, and has denounced them as American puppets. They will talk to Washington if they can figure out who is in charge.
Russia’s minimum demands are probably that it keeps all of Russophone Ukraine and that there is regime change in Kiev.
The Russian’s still think they can win this, and they are likely right, so there is little inducement to get them to quit.
If the attack on the port of Sevastopol by submarine drones this weekend was any indication; not only is there no offramp; they aren’t even trying to keep the conflict at its current dangerous level.
The only options are escalate fast and escalate faster.
Its really clarifying how absurd the situation is; the former British PM Liz Truss became obsessed with the direction the wind was blowing in case of nuclear weapons used in the Black Sea blowing radiation into the UK (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/liz-truss-spent-final-days-28362672) while at the same time aiming to sink the Black Sea Fleet which would precipitate such an event (or so the Russians claim).
Russia somehow survived from 1954-2014 without that port. Regardless, I could se Ukraine giving it up but not the rest. Russia should pay for Crimea though.
Steve
Under pro-Russian regimes that ensured access.
1954-1991 — Both Russia, Ukraine had no military — since it was all Soviet armed forces, and the Soviet Union controlled Sevastopol.
1991-2014 — Sevastopol was leased to Russia. Its clear Russia would never have agreed to the partition of the Soviet Union in the form it took in 1991 unless the lease was agreed to.
As long as we keep providing Zelensky with more armaments and money there will be no need for an off ramp.
So rather than just make nice with Ukraine Russia invaded and took Crimea.
Steve
Kim Il-sung Was Stalin’s bitch.
Russia did not invade Crimea. They were already there by treaty. They are also in Transnistria by treaty.
The referendum that gave Russia the cover to annex Crimea, although “illegal,” most likely represented the true wishes of the large ethnic Russian population there. The referenda in the other four oblasts also most likely represents the wishes of the residents.
Great powers do whatever they please. Clinton got in a snit and partitioned Serbia. He held an “illegal” referendum that likely represented the wishes of the Muslims. Obama got in another snit and murdered Gaddafi and destroyed Libya.