I have a question. Israel is moving troops into Syria from the south. I’ve read some reports that Israel is planning to increase its settlement of the Golan substantially. There are fears that Turkey’s buildup of troops at the border may signal an incursion by Turkey is immanent. There are also some reports that Iraq is considering an incursion into Syria.
Lots of people are speculating about Syria’s future. Does Syria as we have understood it have a future? Today’s Syria is made up of a number of different Ottoman sanjaks and vilayets that have never cohered particularly well. Will Syria disintegrate?
Update
The UN Special Envoy for Syria concluded talks in Damascus on Wednesday, expressing optimism that the fall of the Assad regime could mark the start of a peaceful and democratic transition for the shattered country, while acknowledging challenges remain.
and
Members of the UN Security Council also highlighted the importance of an inclusive and Syrian-led political process based on resolution 2254 (2015) that is facilitated by the United Nations.
In a press statement issued late on Tuesday, ambassadors reaffirmed their strong commitment to Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while urging all nations to respect these principles.
“They also underlined the need for Syria and its neighbours to mutually refrain from any action or interference that could undermine each other’s security,” the statement noted, emphasising the need to combat terrorism and prevent extremist groups like ISIL/Da’esh from regaining a foothold in the country – where they have been active for years.
Council members also reiterated the obligation to respect human rights, including the right to seek justice, and international humanitarian law in all circumstances.
That strikes me as at best aspirational and at worst fantasizing.
What or who is the voice in Syria for maintaining the nation? Russia isn’t going to be much support now being tied up in Ukraine. Israel likely takes whatever it wants. No one to say no. Maybe more proxy activity by Iran as a result. Turner still hates the Kurds and the Kurds still want their own land. Would think Turkey has an advantage but the Kurds have been resourceful.
There was some talk about dividing up Iraq but I think there were a lot of people in Iraq who had the vision of Iraq as an ancient and powerful nation and they didnt want to divide. I dont have enough sense about Syria to know if that really exists there.
Steve
That’s the key point. I don’t believe there is one but there are lots of voices (from outside Syria) calling for dismembering the country.
https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/syria-another-pipeline-war/
This essay on Syria is from 2016, written by R. F. Kennedy Jr.
It’s fairly long but makes the case for a common strategy between Turkey, Qatar,
US and Europe with Israel taking land from the south for a Natural Gas Pipeline across the Mediterranean to Europe to further pressure Russia and of course, make money.
You can fill in the blanks about why it’s considered necessary to further provoke Russia but that’s what we’re doing.
Most of the population in Syria is concentrated in the area of its three largest cities connected by a highway running from Aleppo to Damascus (with Homs, the third largest city in between). It’s a little more than 200 miles between Aleppo and Damascus. It’s hard to imagine that power won’t consolidate fairly quickly in the Syrian core and the peripheral areas will be like peripheral areas in other parts of the Middle East.
BTW/ It’s being reported that Syrians are “collecting weapons and ammunition left in the area by the army and handing them over to the Israel Defense Forces.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-syrian-border-villagers-and-rebels-collecting-weapons-and-handing-them-to-idf/
This looks to be far from over. The US State Dept. confirmed today that the $10 million bounty on al-Joulani was still in force. Turkey/HTS seems to be negotiating a new base agreement with Russia, and Russia’s fall back is Tobruk, and maybe even Egypt. The US won’t leave eastern Syria and its oil fields. Israel has permanently annexed the whole of the Golan and Mt Hermon, and may annex the Druze region. Turkey will attempt to destroy the YPK and PPK, and it may annex northern Syria as far south as Aleppo and Raqqah. The various jihadis are already fighting among themselves. blah, blah, blah…
Another Libya, Somalia (now in 4th decade), or Yemen et al. seems likely.
PS. Has it occurred to you how many governments are unstable? France, Germany, UK, Romania, Georgia…
PPS. Look at “Inside China Business” on YouTube today to see how far China has penetrated Latin American economies. In the last few years, China has made at least $286 billion in direct investments in that region.
No one really knows what will happen.
Historically it’s common that rebel movements (and groups of rebels) can have problems governing after taking power – not only because governing a country like Syria is very difficult but also because factionalism rises as the rebels no longer have a common and uniting enemy.
It doesn’t help when there are multiple interventions of various kinds by other countries (including the US). Turkey is the biggest of these and has controlled about 3,500 square miles of Syria for most of the last decade.
It probably doesn’t help that some Muslims consider all national governments illegitimate.
Probably with the support of the Druze.