Is Syria an Exception or a Roadmap?

I found this post at Lawfare thought-provoking. In the post Daniel Byman argues that in terms of radical Islamism Syria was an exception:

For counterterrorism officials, one of the most difficult counterterrorism challenges is identifying the next global struggle that, like the Syrian civil war, will energize the world’s Muslims and lead tens of thousands of foreigners to join the fray. However, as a Danish proverb (not Yogi Berra) warns, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But while counterterrorism officials must be on alert for the next cause that, like in Syria, produces a surge of foreign fighters and terrorism, they should not assume past is prologue. Indeed, there are many reasons to believe that the emergence of the Islamic State in Syria and the massive flow of foreigners to fight was due to unusual (though not unique) circumstances.

He does make (at least) one interesting point: perhaps the greatest casualty of the war against DAESH was the idea the social media are benign:

Technology companies also stepped up their efforts. Although they have a long way to go, they are vigorously taking down content linked to jihadist terrorist groups, streamlining coordination, hiring more staff, and otherwise improving their game. It is possible that the next group might use different emerging technologies and again catch Silicon Valley flat-footed, but thanks in part to its exploitation by extremist groups and foreign intelligence organizations, the blithe confidence in the internet’s inherent goodness is now gone for good, and it is likely that both governments and technology companies will be more vigilant.

Quite to the contrary I think that Syria provides a roadmap for how future jihadis may operate. First, let me repeat a point I have made in the past (including to those much more knowledgeable about Islam than I who have generally agreed with this claim). Violent movements like Al Qaeda or DAESH will be endemic in any universal, proselytizing sola scriptura religion without a magisterium. Let me de-jargonize that a bit. “Universal proselytizing” means it accepts converts and adherents believe that everyone should belong to the religion. “Sola scriptura” means completely based on scripture, e.g. the Bible or, in the case of Islam, the Qur’an. There are sola scriptura Christian denominations but not all Christian denominations are sola scriptura. All Muslims are sola scriptura. “Magisterium” means an authoritarive teaching authority. Catholics have a magisterium, i.e. the organizational church and, ultimately, the pope. Not all Christian denominations have a magisterium. Again in Islam there is no magisterium. Interpretation of the scripture is left to the individual believer. Consequently, the translation of the sentence above is that DAESH will return or another organization like it will.

Here are some of the markers along the highway. First, choose an objective that has an authoritarian government, particularly an authoritarian government run by an ethnic or religious minority. It is not difficult to find such targets in the Muslim world. Second, false flag operations to encourage Western countries to help you or, at least, not help the regime. Third, neighbors with axes to grind are a plus. Again, not difficult to find. I could go on.

Because DAESH or movements that think the same way are endemic in Islam, expect more to follow this pattern.