At RealPolitics they excerpt a snippet from an interview of David Sacks in The Hill’s podcast, that may deserve some consideration:
So what you see now is there is no agreement within even the Ukrainian senior leadership, between Zelnsky and his advisors, and between Zelensky and his top general, about what is happening in the war.
I think now the truth has broken out, which is that Ukraine is not winning this war, the counteroffensive has been a failure, and if they don’t start doing something different, they’re headed for disaster.
BRIAHNA JOY GRAY: Why do you think we’re getting this news now, that we’re getting the Time Magazine piece now? Certainly, circumstances on the ground haven’t been tony for Ukraine for a very long time, if ever. Do you think this is really about the United States making a choice about which of two ongoing wars it wants to throw its resources behind, and this is all being provoked by the fighting in Gaza? Or do you think it is being driven by the frustration with people inside his own regime, like this general who has been speaking out? To what do you attribute the change in tenor?
DAVID SACKS: I think that if Zelensky continues with this strategy of insisting on advances, there is a great fear on the part of the administration and within his own general corps that Ukraine will collapse.
Is he right? Is Ukraine on the verge of collapse?
Frankly, I doubt it and I suspect Mr. Sacks is misreading Ukrainian politics.
No. Ukraine is not on the verge of collapse. I honestly see a lot of what’s being reported right now is angled towards getting the Ukraine supplemental negotiations; whether to pass it cleanly as the White House desires or with conditions as House Republicans want.
Ask in 12 months, we’ll have a lot more clarity.
One observation I’ll repeat through, a military collapse if it ever happens on either side will look like a small amount of territory gained.
In WW1, the allies decisive offensive in 1918 advanced only 30 miles, and didn’t even reach Germany when it ended; but it resulted in Versailles.