Is a Ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas Conflict a Fantasy?

I’m going to begin this post with the conclusion: I think that the very notion of a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict is a fantasy. In his Washington Post column Shadi Hamid provides his proposal for a ceasefire and the reasons he does not think such a thing is a fantasy:

What might a plausible cease-fire look like in practice? The specifics matter. Any proposal must take seriously Israel’s legitimate security needs. First, Hamas must agree to release hostages and commit to halting rocket fire into Israel. In exchange, Israel would agree to stop its bombardment of Gaza as well as any ground incursions into Gazan territory.

Once this first step is taken, a cease-fire would allow for further negotiations on what comes next. These talks should be led by the United States, with the active support of governments in communication with Hamas — namely Qatar and Turkey. These countries should demand that Hamas offload its governing responsibilities in Gaza to the Palestinian Authority.

While it will be challenging to iron out the specifics of such an arrangement, some rough outlines can be sketched. Just as it is unrealistic to ask Israel to accept an unconditional cease-fire, so, too, is the notion that Hamas can be “eradicated.” Unlike al-Qaeda or the Islamic State, both of which often relied on foreign fighters, Hamas members and their families are Palestinian. Truly eliminating the organization — one with hundreds of thousands of supporters and sympathizers — would require mass killing on an unprecedented scale.

But if Hamas members won’t disappear, what happens to them? Any intra-Palestinian negotiations should include a path for low- and mid-level Hamas cadres, as well as members of the group’s political leadership, to be incorporated within any future governing structure. Without one, the Palestinian Authority will continue to suffer from a major legitimacy deficit. Under any such “reconciliation” agreement between Palestinian factions, armed groups would need to demobilize and integrate their military forces within those of the Palestinian Authority. Elections would need to be held within a reasonable time and, in order to participate, members of Hamas and other militants would need to commit to pursuing any political aims through the ballot box.

His justification is terribly weak. He argues from precedent but the precedents he cites, in 2014 and 2017, are self-refuting. The last seven years are an indication of their failure not of their success.

To his credit Mr. Hamid recognizes that any ceasefire must not be limited to the Israeli Defense Force—Hamas must end hostilities as well.

My reasons for believing a ceasefire is a fantasy include:

What about Palestinian Islamic Jihad?

In the unlikely event that Hamas would end hostilities, there is another terrorist group operating in Gaza and firing rockets into Israel: Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). As long as that’s the case any ceasefire would be hollow.. Hamas would blame any attack onm PIJ and vice versa. A ceasefire would need to a complete end to all attacks on Israel emanating from Gaza.

That won’t happen.

Hamas’s very reason for existence is to make war against the Jews in Israel. It’s right in the organization’s charter.

Precedent is against it.

There have been multiple rocket attacks directed against Israel every month this year except September which might have given us a clue that something was in the wind. That’s not an aberration. It’s typical—it has been true every year for the last ten years. Under present circumstances I doubt that giving Gaza-based terrorist organizations a few free shots every month would be popular in Israel.

What’s in it for the Hamas leadership?

Hamas is not a benevolent society or fraternal organization. It’s more like an organized crime syndicate. Like all such organizations it’s a Ponzi scheme. The leadership has been siphoning off billions in donated money for more than a decade. Some has gone to making war against Israel but a lot has gone to letting the leadership live the high life in other Gulf Arab countries. I have little doubt that more is sitting in nice, secure Swiss bank accounts. I don’t believe the leadership will give that up.

If there isn’t a ceasefire, what will happen? I honestly have no idea. I don’t see a stable endpoint to this conflict. It’s a zero-sum game.