Iran has had a very bad week and it looks as though that will continue. That began, propitiously enough, with the International Atomic Energy Agency informing Iran that it was out of compliance with its Safety Agreement with the agency. Reuters reports:
VIENNA, June 11 (Reuters) – Below are key passages from a four-page resolution on Iran that diplomats said the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors passed on Thursday. The text is still confidential and was seen by Reuters.
Here are some key passages:
(e) Regretting that despite the above resolutions by the Board and numerous opportunities provided by the Director General since 2019, Iran has failed to provide the co-operation required under its Safeguards Agreement, impeding Agency verification activities, sanitizing locations, and repeatedly failing to provide the Agency with technically credible explanations for the presence of uranium particles of anthropogenic origin at several undeclared locations in Iran or information on the current location(s) of nuclear material and/or of contaminated equipment, instead stating, inconsistent with the Agency’s findings, that it has declared all nuclear material and activities required under its Safeguards Agreement,
(f) Noting the Director General’s conclusion … that Iran did not declare nuclear material and nuclear-related activities at three undeclared locations in Iran, specifically, Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad, and that, because of the lack of technically credible answers by Iran, the Agency is not in a position to determine whether the nuclear material at these undeclared locations in Iran has been consumed, mixed with other declared material, or is still outside of Safeguards,
and
(h) Noting with concern the Agency’s conclusion that Iran retained unknown nuclear material and/or heavily contaminated equipment, and other assets, arising from the former undeclared structured nuclear programme, at Turquzabad in the period 2009 until 2018, after which items were removed from the location, the whereabouts of which remain unknown,
The emphasis is mine. What the IAEA has acknowledged is what I’ve been saying all along. We have never known the extent of Iran’s nuclear development program. That includes during the period in which the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was in force.
I don’t believe that apologists for the Obama Administration recognize what the IAEA has done to them. The JCPOA could not accomplish its objective because the Iranians have never been forthcoming. They merely revealed what we already knew. Their compliance with it was limited to that.
That is not to say that I think the Trump Administration acted rightly in abrogating the JCPOA. I think it acted foolishly. Limited as Iranian compliance was we had already materially borne the costs of the JCPOA and abrogating it just threw that investment away. What I think the Trump Administration should have done was work to limit expectations of what the JCPOA could accomplish.
Then only a day later the other shoe dropped. The Israelis attacked Iran’s known nuclear development facilities and made a special point of “decapitating” Iran’s nuclear development and military. The exchange of hostilities between Israel and Iran continues. Alexander Cornwell, Parisa Hafezi and Jeff Mason report at Reuters:
TEL AVIV/DUBAI/WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters)
Iranian missiles struck major Israeli cities on Monday while Israel’s prime minister said his country was on its way to eliminating “threats” from nuclear and missile facilities in Iran and civilian casualties mounted on both sides.After four days of conflict between the regional foes, Iran said its parliament was preparing a bill to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) adding that Iran remained opposed to developing weapons of mass destruction.
By most accounts Israel has done substantial damage to Iran’s nuclear and missile development programs and has substantial control of the skies over Iran so expect Israel’s attacks on Iranian infrastructure to continue.
All of this is completely consistent with what I have maintained for the last twenty years: far from being a deterrent any nuclear development program on Iran’s part would be a target.
We don’t know what will materialize from the conflict. Perhaps Israel knows where all of Iran’s nuclear development facilities are located but I doubt it. Iran is unlikely to be deterred by its losses and possibly not even slowed down. I suspect that the likelihood of the U. S.’s being drawn into the conflict are high, something President Trump increases by hinting at American cooperation with Israel in Israel’s attacks on Iran.
I don’t believe that an Iranian attack on the U. S. will be a conventional one. I suspect that Iran will stick to its strengths which are in supporting terrorism. Such an attack could be in the Middle East, in Europe, or here in the United States.
The problem with the JCPOA always was its lack of real robust verification provisions. That rendered it effectively useless.
I don’t know about foolishness. Sunk costs are sunk; an investment worth zero and all that. And I don’t even know what limiting expectations means. Can you verify or not?
I saw a piece purporting to measure Iran’s development activity, using breakout time and amount of 60%+ material at hand. It claimed a marked reduction after JCPOA, continuing after Trump’s pullout. (How do you know?) But then increasing dramatically when Biden took office. If their metric has any credibility I would say they saw a softie in Biden. But how do you know…….
The US has no doubt already partnered with Israel on intelligence and logistics. I think the question of further involvement centers around Fordo. I would be shocked if Israel didn’t go for the throat (Fordo, and perhaps Khomeini) given the magnitude of this whole event. But we have the bunker busters. From everything I’ve read, most of the Middle East is secretly cheering the destruction of Iran’s regime and reach. Why not? And if we don’t, what message does that send other Middle Eastern actors, Taiwan etc?
It is pretty shocking how Iran’s proxies (Hezbollah, Assad, Hamas, Houthis), which were its tools to deter Israel, got smashed once the Israelis perceived themselves in mortal danger after 10/7/23. The saying of Sun Tzu applies, “always leave an opening to your enemy”; to avoid a desperate fight for survival (even if the threat is only psychological and not based in reality).
Hezbollah, Assad, Hamas being defanged opened the path for direct conflict between Israel / Iran.
In all this, I still don’t get why Iran decided it wanted to threaten Israel with annihilation. It doesn’t share a direct border with Israel, was there something to be gained?
Meh. Read the entire IAEA resolution. First, the part about 2009-2018 is referring to activity that actually took place around 2003. More importantly, it notes that since the JCPOA was abandoned that Iran is again enriching uranium that we actually know about. Could they have a really, tp secret place we dont know about? Sure, but then we wouldn’t know they were enriching uranium and why would Israel bomb them?
What we had with the JCPOA was the most extensive monitoring program in any nuclear agreement. What Israel, hence the US right wanted, was access to inspect anywhere, anytime without warning which we have never had with anyone. By that standard it was a mistake to have these agreements with Russia and China.
Again, nukes arent that hard to build, if as Dave claims they have been enriching uranium non-stop then they have more than enough to make bombs.
What I cant understand, mostly, is why Iran thinks it’s a good idea to keep pretending like it wants to build nukes. Either have a secret program and build them or stop pretending. I sort of understand that it would like to have the option if needed but it was clear long before now that they pay a high price for maintaining that option.
Steve
On the talking heads programs I heard two senators, one Republican and one Democrat, agreeing that the Iranians had enough highly-enriched uranium to build ten nuclear weapons. That alone gives the lie to the claim that if they had it, they’d use it. We have helium bombs but we’ve never used them in war.
IMO there are only three credible explanations for the Iranians producing HEU in quantity as they are:
1. They plan to build bombs.
2. They want “breakout capability”
3. They want to be able to sell/donate it.
None of those is even vaguely acceptable.
I think breakout capability most likely. Not sure why that is unacceptable from their POV. What it means for them is that any country with actual nukes can attack with relative impunity. Look at Ukraine. Think Russia invades if they had kept the nukes?
Steve
Dave’s 3 points say it all.
“Not sure why that is unacceptable from their POV.”
Seriously, steve?
Dave Schuler: What the IAEA has acknowledged is what I’ve been saying all along. We have never known the extent of Iran’s nuclear development program. That includes during the period in which the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was in force.
And yet, with much lower levels of monitoring than under JCPOA, inspectors know that Iran has produced highly-enriched uranium. Your statement is self-refuting.
And yet it’s what the IAEA has reported. It’s not self-refuting but an indictment of the limitations of the JCPOA.
Dave Schuler: And yet it’s what the IAEA has reported. It’s not self-refuting but an indictment of the limitations of the JCPOA.
Of course, it is self-refuting. Even with a lesser inspection regime, they could detect that Iran was producing highly-enriched uranium. Consequently, a greater inspection regime, one which encompassed all aspects of the lesser inspection regime plus additional stringent protocols, would have detected Iran’s production of highly-enriched uranium.
You had also previously claimed that there was no way to know that Iran had shipped tonnes of enriched uranium when JCPOA was implemented, even though it was loaded onto ships, processed, then returned to Iran as reactor fuel.
THe JCPOA was rejected by the US in 2019. They have had 6 years to produce highly enriched Uranium. Note that the IAEA report in 2020 did not claim they had evidence of enriched uranium production.
Steve
Iran, number of installed centrifuges
How many centrifuges are installed in locations of whose existence we are unaware?
This should be easy for you. Divide the number claimed by that link into the number in the locations reported as of 2024, the number located in the additional locations of which we have become aware since 2024, and the number located in the locations of which we remain unaware.
Dave Schuler: How many centrifuges are installed in locations of whose existence we are unaware?
Uranium centrifuges are high technology with a significant infrastructure, so they have a considerable footprint. There is also human intelligence. But ultimately, the detection of highly-enriched uranium is detectable, as we have seen with the recent revelations.
Must we repeat what you have left unaddressed: Even with a lesser inspection regime, international observers detected that Iran has been producing highly-enriched uranium. Consequently, a greater inspection regime, one which encompassed all aspects of the lesser inspection regime plus additional more stringent protocols, would also have detected Iran’s production of highly-enriched uranium.
Iran’s position has been clear though not openly stated: they want nuclear deterrence. But that doesn’t require an actual nuclear weapon, only the ability to produce one if confronted with an existential threat. (Nuclear weaponry is old technology. Gee whiz, even North Korea produced a nuclear weapon, and Iran is much more technologically and industrially advanced.)
Iran can produce a nuclear weapon any time they choose. The only question has been the breakout time. Through American ineptitude, that breakout time is now just weeks. And, with Trump insisting on “unconditional surrender”, Iran has much greater justification to actually produce a nuclear weapon.