In What Reality?

I agree with Tom Friedman in his latest New York Times column that there are lots of people to blame over the horrid situation in Gaza. First and foremost, Hamas:

Let’s go to the videotape: In September 2005, Ariel Sharon completed a unilateral withdrawal of all Israeli forces and settlements from Gaza, which Israel occupied in the 1967 war. In short order, Hamas began attacking the crossing points between Gaza and Israel to show that even if Israel was gone, the resistance movement wasn’t over; these crossing points were a lifeline for commerce and jobs, and Israel eventually reduced the number of crossings from six to two.

In January 2006, the Palestinians held elections hoping to give the Palestinian Authority legitimacy to run Gaza and the West Bank. There was a debate among Israeli, Palestinian and Bush administration officials over whether Hamas should be allowed to run in the elections — because it had rejected the Oslo peace accords with Israel.

Yossi Beilin, one of the Israeli architects of Oslo, told me that he and others argued that Hamas should not be allowed to run, as did many members of Fatah, Arafat’s group, who had embraced Oslo and recognized Israel. But the Bush team insisted that Hamas be permitted to run without embracing Oslo, hoping that it would lose and this would be its ultimate refutation. Unfortunately, for complex reasons, Fatah ran unrealistically high numbers of candidates in many districts, dividing the vote, while the more disciplined Hamas ran carefully targeted slates and managed to win the parliamentary majority.

Hamas then faced a critical choice: Now that it controlled the Palestinian parliament, it could work within the Oslo Accords and the Paris protocol that governed economic ties between Israel, Gaza and the West Bank — or not.

Hamas chose not to — making a clash between Hamas and Fatah, which supported Oslo, inevitable. In the end, Hamas violently ousted Fatah from Gaza in 2007, killing some of its officials and making clear that it would not abide by the Oslo Accords or the Paris protocol. That led to the first Israeli economic blockade of Gaza — and what would be 22 years of on-and-off Hamas rocket attacks, Israeli checkpoint openings and closings, wars and cease-fires, all culminating on Oct. 7.

These were fateful choices. Once Sharon pulled Israel out of Gaza, Palestinians were left, for the first time ever, with total control over a piece of land. Yes, it was an impoverished slice of sand and coastal seawater, with some agricultural areas. And it was not the ancestral home of most of its residents. But it was theirs to build anything they wanted.

Had Hamas embraced Oslo and chosen to build its own Dubai, not only would the world have lined up to aid and invest in it, it would have been the most powerful springboard conceivable for a Palestinian state in the West Bank, in the heart of the Palestinian ancestral homeland. Palestinians would have proved to themselves, to Israelis and to the world what they could do when they have their own territory.

But Hamas decided instead to make Gaza a springboard for destroying Israel. To put it another way, Hamas had a choice: to replicate Dubai in 2023 or replicate Hanoi in 1968. It chose to replicate Hanoi, whose Củ Chi tunnel network served as the launchpad for the ’68 Tet offensive.

Then Israeli PM Benyamin Netanyahu:

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister — 16 years — also made choices. And even before this war, he made terrible ones — for Israel and for Jews all over the world.

The list is long: Before this war, Netanyahu actively worked to keep the Palestinians divided and weak by strengthening Hamas in Gaza with billions of dollars from Qatar, while simultaneously working to discredit and delegitimize the more moderate Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, committed to Oslo and nonviolence in the West Bank. That way Netanyahu could tell every U.S. president, in effect: I’d love to make peace with the Palestinians, but they are divided, and moreover, the best of them can’t control the West Bank and the worst of them control Gaza. So what do you want from me?

Netanyahu’s goal has always been to destroy the Oslo option once and for all. In that, Bibi and Hamas have always needed each other: Bibi to tell the U.S. and Israelis that he had no choice, and Hamas to tell Gazans and its new and naïve supporters around the world that the Palestinians’ only choice was armed struggle led by Hamas.

There is also Fatah, Iran, and useful idiots like Mr. Friedman who departs for Cloud Cuckoo Land with this:

The only exit from this mutually assured destruction is to bring in some transformed version of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank — or a whole new P.L.O.-appointed government of Palestinian technocrats — in partnership with moderate Arab states like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

In what reality is Saudi Arabia moderate or pro-Western? It is a really strained definition of “moderate” that accepts the assassination of journalists, public executions for witchcraft, and the prohibition of practicing any religion other than Islam publicly as moderate. My assessment is that Saudi Arabia is a radical Islamist authoritarian country that is pro-whatever keeps the Saud family in power.

Egypt is essentially a military dictatorship that perennially ranks very low in the rating of its civil rights. Freedom of speech, religion, and the press are all severely curtailed. The largest Arab country, it is only moderate when compared with Iran or Saudi Arabia.

Jordan might reasonably be characterized as moderate, especially in comparison with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but it is also part of the problem. When people speak of a “two-state solution” they actually mean a three-state solution. There is already a Palestinian state and its name is Jordan. One obvious resolution of present conflicts would be for Jordan to assume control of the West Bank but that would create additional problems for Jordan—a majority of the population of the expanded country would be Palestinian. Consequently, it doesn’t want the West Bank.

Mr. Friedman’s fantasy solution to the problems in the Middle East consists of a Palestinian Authority that exists only in his imagination supported by immoderate moderate countries. That does not sound like a winning formula to me. And that doesn’t even consider the changes in Israel that will occur as a consequence of Hamas’s October 7 attack and the ensuing war. The reaction of the Israelis to previous Arab attacks has been to become more radical. Will this time be different?