Here’s how Washington Post columnist Henry Olson sees the present political situation in one sentence:
Redistricting complicates the House picture, but Democrats should expect to lose more than 20 seats and likely more than 30 on the current dismal data.
He expands on that a bit in his conclusion:
Progressives who say it’s more important to energize the base for the midterms are wrong. Democrats’ 2018 wave was fueled much more because they won independents by 12 points than by turning out more Democrats. The Republican 63-seat House pickup in 2010 was also fueled primarily by independents; the GOP won this demographic by a whopping 19 points that year. Tea party activists claimed the credit for the win, much as progressive women’s and youth groups garnered accolades for 2018, but in each case, it was the quiet independent voters who made the difference.
Biden won independents by 13 points in 2020. To go from plus-13 to minus-13 in less than a year is an epic disaster. Republicans are standing by, ready to pick up the pieces from a crumbling presidency.
I presume that progressives believe they are winning; my own view is that they’re piloting the Democratic Party into very risky waters with practically no electoral victories to bolster their claims.
There are those who don’t believe independent voters exist but that all politics today is strictly tribal. For them the independents to whom Mr. Olson refers are actually crypto-Republicans. I disagree with that view but I will ask a question: if that’s the case doesn’t that make the prognosis even worse for Democrats?
While affiliation is something I don’t believe it’s everything. Preference, local conditions, and candidates are important as well.
I have another question. Will a victory on one of his key issues (the “infrastructure bill”, the “Build Back Better” bill, the JCPOA, global warming) turn public opinion around for President Biden?
Here I think are 4, 5 metrics that I believe will be determinative in the Nov 22 elections.
1) Number of COVID-19 deaths since Jan 20, 2021
2) Number of COVID-19 deaths since Jan 1, 2022
3) The U6 unemployment rate
4) Real GDP growth
5) CPI inflation
Notice none of these metrics will be effected by the bills going through Congress by next November. The only plausible effect I could see is the political wrangling has sucked up the attention of the WH so they aren’t focusing on how to improve those metrics right now.
While our politics is largely tribal there are independent voters and those not completely in a tribe. If I had to make a WAG I would say maybe 20% of people are in that latter group. They certainly are important at the margins but as you have noted in the past congress critters are more worried about being primaried than they are losing the general in most places.
So I think that the Democrats are being driven too much by the far left, just like the Tea Party drove decisions for the GOP. That said, I still dont think they are going to be able to pass the more extreme versions of their bills and since Biden is not a member of the far left he will be willing to sign more moderate bills.
Steve
I think the percentage is more like 40%. I wonder how one would go about quantifying it? A good start might be a rigorous measurable definition of your “tribalism”. I think you’re conflating multiple different things as tribalism including something I would agree is tribalism with preference which I don’t think is.
Example: why is the vaccination rate for black Democrats in Red States lower than in Blue States? Maybe impediments are being placed in their way but I think it’s more likely that they share preferences with their white, Republican fellows.
Or maybe they don’t trust how things are done in red states. Note that in some blue states black people are vaccinated at rates higher than white people.
We would need some poli sci people with time and interest to give us the actual percentage. I am guessing I am guessing lower since even in wave elections we have not gotten to 60% recently voting for one POTUS candidate, IIRC. Then there were all those polls saying that 70% t 80% of Republicans thought the election was stolen. You need to be pretty deep in the tribal bubble to believe that given the lack of evidence.
Steve
Think once folks starting seeing more green in their wallets as result of the plan things will improve for Biden. However, if the most likely result occurs (money disappearing down a rat hole), well messy.