I wanted to share the information above from the Illinois Department of Public Health. Illinois has been under a statewide “stay at home” directive for almost six weeks now. I would think that if there were any “curve-bending” going on we would see evidence of it by now. There’s more info at the IDPH site. Based on what they show there is still substantial available capacity in every sector of the state. The City of Chicago itself is tightest, as you might expect. That Chicago is in the middle of a shooting spree that began the week after the governor announced the “stay at home” directive might have something to do with that.
I suppose one might make the argument that the fact that Illinois’s ICUs are not stretched to capacity is proof positive that the “stay at home” directive is having the desired effect. As I’ve said before that strikes me as a “tiger repellent” argument. It also does not disaggregate the effects of the “stay at home” directive with any changes in treatment protocols that may have taken place over the same period. Are treating physicians still as likely to put people presenting with the symptoms of COVID-19 on ventilators as they were six weeks ago? I have no idea.
I’m sure some of you think I’m somewhere between irresponsible and nuts on my philosophy on this issue. I don’t know how much Florida news makes it to national venues, but I hate to tell you:
Florida has followed, almost to the letter, the prescription I have outlined. (and Sweden) A. Focus on the vulnerable, like isolating nursing homes (gee, where have I heard about focus before?) Unlike states that have allowed them to be polluted with well meaning relatives. B. Light social distancing. I live here. I’ve driven around. There are no draconian measures. The beaches were open; a subject of much derision. Traffic is about what you would expect for off season. You can purchase all the necessities. The biggest issue has been the restaurants. And many of them are now doing curbside or delivery.
As I teased yesterday or the day before- 450,000 predicted hospitalizations. 2000 actual. Florida, home of the elderly, produced those statistics. New York, home of the arrogant socialists and idiot mayors and governors……..well.
” 450,000 predicted hospitalizations. 2000 actual.”
As I said before, who predicted that? I must say that your “no draconian measures sounds like our stay at home, except for the beaches. Ours arent very good anyway.
As to your post I looked at that early in the morning when you linked it. The total number of ICU beds looks a bit high to me. Does that include ICU expansions to deal with Covid? Otherwise doesnt look very full.
“Are treating physicians still as likely to put people presenting with the symptoms of COVID-19 on ventilators as they were six weeks ago?”
No. Not sure what is working, our guys think steroids and proning, but we arent having as many people end up on vents. ICU morale has picked up quite a bit. Lots of information sharing among hospitals Documented elsewhere that other hospitals seeing the same thing.
Sweden’s death rate is 50% higher than there US and 100% higher than its neighbors. Starting with almost ideal conditions.
Steve
That suggests it may be difficult to disaggregate changes in physician behavior from other factors (increases in available resources, “stay at home” directives, pessimistic initial estimates, etc.) in determining why the health care system has not been overwhelmed.
steve – Just listen to yourself. Those projections came from multiple sources. But as I’ve been saying over and over and over, they were all crap. All the data and models have been pure crap. Nothing to make draconian policy off of. Are you even stopping, for a second, to ponder the 2000 number? That’s what is important; and its jack squat. And nothing to destroy an economy over despite the fearmongers.
Your Sweden comment is just crap. Apples and oranges. Which brings me to the punchline. In perspective, this has really been a NY metro phenomenon. 50% of all the deaths. 25,000 flu deaths in flyover country? This wouldn’t even make the evening news; but its NY and NY media. That’s worthy of analysis. I strongly suspect it all boils down to what I’ve said from day one. Non-compliance eviscerated the total lockdown strategy. It was hopelessly flawed. Meanwhile, out in the balance of the US they decided to force everyone to do the same and nuke the economy. Those people are not materially better off. It has come at a cost to them that is now becoming obviously greater than the costs of the disease, in this year or any other. People blather on about bailing out NY banks. What about bailing out NYers? Don’t people from Arkansas matter?
Something is very wrong here.
“may be difficult to disaggregate changes in physician behavior from other factors (increases in available resources, “stay at home†directives, pessimistic initial estimates, etc.) ”
I should have added that our number of admissions has been level during most of this period. We have just as many patients but fewer end up on a vent.
Steve
Sweden’s death rate is 50% higher than ours and about 100% higher than its neighbors. Drew claims they are having major economic benefits with this approach, but not citing any evidence of such benefit. Well, that benefit is being questioned.
https://www.aei.org/economics/international-economics/swedens-coronavirus-results-dont-make-the-case-for-reopening-the-american-economy/
Steve
I would add that to my eye South Korea’s “open” isn’t that much different from our “closed”.
There are so many moving parts that under the simplest of circumstances I’m reluctant to compare countries as you might have noticed, in particular because I think the U. S. is an outlier in a lot of areas. The extremes are difficult to compare with others.
“I would add that to my eye South Korea’s “open†isn’t that much different from our “closedâ€.”
Yes and same with Sweden. Cowen has been doing a series looking at epidemiology models. One of the criticisms of some models is that they dont adequately account for change. If lots of people start dying, odds are good that they will change their behaviors even before government steps in and mandates change. So, good studies, like the one constantly, and ignorantly, cited by conservatives as claiming 2.2 million deaths actually offer a range depending upon behavior. So in Ferguson’s study he offers a range of about 6000 deaths to 2.2 million.
One of my pet peeves is few people read original studies. They read only the headline of an article describing the study.
Steve
The failure to turn to primary sources has been a recurring theme at this blog since I began blogging. I will confess that I do not read every paper referred to by any source I cite but I do turn to a lot of them on the grounds that I should not need to re-report every story and, indeed, have no obligation to do so. I may read as many papers in areas outside my own field as anybody else in the world.
But increasingly with today’s weaponized news you can’t rely on the reporting. IMO that’s sad.
You dont have enough time to read everything so sometimes you have to rely on other people. I try to make that be people I know and who have expertise in the area in which the paper was written. Sometimes dont live up to my own ideals, but try.
Steve