In reaction to the revelations of yesterday in which Donald Trump, Jr. released his emails with a Russian lawyer the editors of the Washington Post say:
THERE CAN now be no doubt: The Russia meddling story is not just smoke but fire. Donald Trump Jr.’s interactions with Russians during last year’s presidential campaign were abnormal and alarming. An incriminating email chain has made it impossible for the administration to deploy its always flimsy argument of last resort — that the whole story is just “fake news.â€
Not only Mr. Trump but also presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner and then-campaign chairman Paul J. Manafort are involved. Following a string of misleading and false statements, Americans must also wonder: Were other Trump associates involved? Did other meetings take place? Was President Trump aware of them? What more did the Trump camp know about Kremlin support for the Trump campaign?
And then there is this recurring question: How long can the rest of the Republican Party prioritize partisanship and agenda over decency and patriotism?
I don’t recall having said that there were no communications between the Trump campaign or people connected with the Trump campaign and Russians but if I did I was wrong. Clearly, there were such communications.
At this point here’s what we know:
- There were in fact communications between the Trump campaign and/or people connected with the Trump campaign and Russians.
- As the New York Post remarks, Donald Trump, Jr. is an idiot.
- If the Trump campaign and/or people connected it with it said that there were no communications between them and Russians, they were either mistaken or lying.
- The FBI investigation continues.
- These revelations give them more fuel for their fire.
Communicating with Russians is still not a crime, let alone treason as some maintain.
At this point we don’t know:
- Whether there was any underlying crime.
- Whether any of this is a “high crime or misdemeanor”.
As Alan Dershowitz points out, there may be no underlying crime involved. The most likely would be a violation of the Logan Act. The complication of prosecuting it as such would be that it would open up every CEO of a major company or many large NGOs for prosecution under the act.
Whether any of this constitutes a political crime serious enough for impeachment will depend on the president’s approval rating. If it falls below what appears to be his present floor, Trump could be in real trouble. If my theory holds, nothing will change.
This isn’t politics any more. It’s Kafka.
Update
The editors of the Wall Street Journal weigh in:
In the daisy chain from Russian oligarch to singer to PR go-between to lawyer to Trump scion, which is more plausible? That Don Jr. was canny enough to coordinate a global plot to rig the election but not canny enough to notice that this plot was detailed in his personal emails? Or that some Russians took advantage of a political naif named Trump in an unsuccessful bid to undermine the Magnitsky law they hated?
The problem is that President Trump has too often made the implausible plausible by undermining his own credibility on Russia. He’s stocked his cabinet with Russia hawks but dallied with characters like the legendary Beltway bandit Mr. Manafort or the conspiratorialist Roger Stone. His Syrian bombing and energy policy are tough on Russia, but Mr. Trump thinks that if he says Russia interfered in 2016 he will play into the Democratic narrative that his victory is illegitimate.
Thus in retrospect the John Podesta and Democratic National Committee hacks—still so far the tangible extent of Russian meddling—did less damage to U.S. democracy than it has done to the Trump Presidency. The person who should be maddest about the Russian hacks is Mr. Trump.
The “Magnitsky law” is H.R. 4405, a law enacted in 2012 that imposes sanctions on named Russian individuals deemed responsible for the death of Sergei Leonidovich Magnitsky, a lawyer and auditor who investigated corruption in the Russian government.
It’s Kafkaesque because of its treatment by the opposition, political and media. Partial and selective info. Speculation. Lack of any sense of context. Failure to report opposition research on the part of Dems and Ukraine. Etc etc
Your bullet points are fine with a glaring exception. The son is being quoted, and took the meeting, not Trump Sr. unless you want to engage in the same wild speculation like others, and I don’t think you do, that’s it. His two cohorts exited stage left, when the bogus nature of it all was evident, reportedly in less than 10 minutes. No information was forthcoming. It was over. It was a whores come on. It’s going nowhere because there is no there to go to.
This whole thing is a planned distraction and is only serving to identify clowns or unserious people from the rest.
No, I’m trying to avoid “wild speculation” and hew as closely to the known facts as I can. I haven’t cited other articles characterizing the younger Mr. Trump as a “civil servant” or “operative of the Trump campaign” because he wasn’t either one of those. He was inevitably connected with the Trump campaign just as Chelsea Clinton was connected with the Clinton campaign.
Your point about opposition research is well taken. We are being asked to believe that Democrats don’t do opposition research and wouldn’t accept damaging information about their political opponents from Russians if it were available? Really?
Politico reported months ago that the Clinton campaign worked with the Ukraine to dig up dirt on Trump and Manafort. Which brings up the question did the Russians know what the Ukrainians were doing and how did it affect what actions if any they did in the election.
I remarked back then that one plausible take was 2016 was some kind of proxy war between Russia and Ukraine….
Slightly OT. But Trump Jr and his relationship with his dad certainly sounds familiar. Eldest son of a bigger than life character; ends up traumatized by his lineage and spends most of his youth in wild living; sobers up and tries to continue his fathers legacy with varying degrees of success.
Examples include George Bush and George W Bush, Pierre Trudeau and Justin Trudeau; and with all respect, Billy Graham and Franklin Graham.
Someone could make a good novel out of this.
And yes, Trump Jr is an idiot, love to be there when his dad talk to him about it.
Fair is fair. Put RNC email on the table and call it even.
On the original release, part of his emails got lost, so many people did not see this last line. It is certainly possible Trump Sr knew about this. So, how many more secret meetings occurred? They probably did not get information from the Russian government to help with their campaign, but it is pretty clear that the Trump campaign was willing to work with Russia. Why else do you send the 3 highest campaign operatives? (Or 3 out of 4 since Ivanka was active.)
It looks to me like Trump is making the same mistake every other politician makes. He is trying to hide stuff so things keep dribbling out. His supporters demand the investigation be stopped, and then something new pops out. Anyway, here is the quote with the last line.
“This is obviously very high level and sensitive information but is part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump – helped along by Aras and Emin.
What do you think is the best way to handle this information and would you be able to speak to Emin about it directly?
I can also send this info to your father via Rhona, but it is ultra sensitive so wanted to send to you first.”
Steve
Who is Rhona? Sounds like Trump had a way to get information sent to him by a person so as to avoid surveillance or any traceable records. Told you the guy is clever.
Well if Mueller really wants to know — the guy who wrote the original email is British. Mueller can put an extradition request and give the guy (Rob Goldstone?) immunity in return for his testimony.
If Mr Goldstone refuses to testify under those circumstances then it would be pretty toxic for Trump.
I think we have a pretty good idea what the RNC email looks like. A lot of “we are going to lose”, “Trump is crazy / stupid / liar”, “stop working with Trump”, “I am going to quit if…”. Quite entertaining!
They’d rather be accused of treason than put those things out there, I’m sure.
Trump & Co. should have gotten a middle-man. That’s what the professionals do. Consider the Steele Dossier – a GoP group hired a foreign firm headed by a foreign national to do opposition research on Trump by using his firm’s network of other foreign nationals. After Trump won the nomination, a Democratic group continued to fund the research.
Information is information and foreign sources are foreign sources. The only difference between the Steele Dossier and this is plausible deniability. Professional oppo research firms are funded by partisan groups, not candidates themselves), and they utilize intermediaries to distance the effort from the actual candidate it benefits. That keeps the candidate’s hands clean when it comes to public perception.
Trump & Co are not only novices, but they also appear to be more hands on and insular when it comes dealing with this kind of thing. Had they hired an oppo research firm to gather the same information from the same sources we likely never would have heard about any of this because that is “normal” Washington rules.
Andy- They were contacted with this offer. At some level I can’t believe that they were stupid enough to respond. And if you do respond, you definitely don’t send nearly the entire senior campaign staff.
What we don’t know is if they had contacted this guy (Goldstone?) earlier and asked for help finding stuff, or asked other people, including Russians.
Steve
Consider the contradictions of the “no sparrow falls” hypothesis. That’s the belief that everything that happens in Russia is directly under the control of the Kremlin.
If you held that belief and you’ve decided that Trump and Junior have both committed treason, the list of traitors is enormous and includes Hillary Clinton, John Podesta, and Jimmy Carter.
Steve,
I agree it was stupid – a more experience/professional campaign would have directed them to an intermediary.
Who is Rhona? Sounds like Trump had a way to get information sent to him by a person so as to avoid surveillance or any traceable records. Told you the guy is clever
Um, Rhonda was (is) Trump’s long serving personal assistant. No super secret under-the-radar communication schemes in sight.
http://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-rhona-graff-trumps-assistant-2017-07
The more that comes out, the more we see what amateurs the Trump team was. And Jr was stupid enough to fall for the political equivalent of the Nigerian prince email scam.
It’s almost enough to lead one to conclude that these boobs could not possibly have concocted a plan to collude with anyone. Opponents of Trump ought to carefully control the leaking since the accusations might become less and less plausible as evidence is revealed.
S. E. Cupp has written a good opinion piece about reporters overshooting current news at NY Daily News.