it probably is. Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its estimate of second quarter 2016 nonfarm business sector labor productivity to an annualized figure of -.5%:
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 0.5-percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.2 percent and hours worked increased
1.8 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2015 to the second quarter of 2016, productivity decreased 0.4 percent, the first four-quarter decline in the series since a 0.6-percent decrease in the second quarter of 2013.
(See table A.)Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.
Given the fundamentals of this year’s presidential election, e.g. phlegmatic economy, unease about terrorism and the international situation more generally, the tendency of the American voter to vote for the party not holding the White House after two terms, etc., a more conventional Republican presidential candidate might well have sauntered to election in November. That this is manifestly not the case for Donald Trump shows just how weak a candidate he is.
With Hillary Clinton’s flaws as a candidate, a Rose Garden strategy would probably be more effective. That she is not doing that suggests that she recognizes that the fundamentals are not on her side.
