I asked ChatGPT what the Illinois Congressional district maps would look like without gerrymandering (if the districts were compact and aligned with county/municipal boundaries). Here’s its summary response:
Shifting Illinois maps to strictly compact and municipal/county-aligned boundaries would likely reduce Democratic seat totals from ~14 down to ~12 and correspondingly cut Republican representation from ~3 up to ~5, making almost all districts either safely Democratic or safely Republican—with very few genuinely competitive seats.
The map it drew is at the top of the post. If you’re curious about the impact that would have nationally, there would be 160-170 “safe” Republican seats, 130-140 “safe” Democratic seats, and 125-145 competitive seats. That’s consistent with FiveThirtyEight’s and other analyses I’ve cited here in the past.
That’s consistent with FiveThirtyEight’s and other analyses I’ve cited here in the past.
That is because the chat AI plagiarized those sources.
No doubt.
If anyone is curious about why I’m posting about gerrymandering a) Illinois is one of the worst examples of gerrymandering in the country; and b) I find it deeply ironic that Democrats should be complaining about gerrymandering since they are the primary beneficiaries of it.
IMO Democrats should favor doubling (or even tripling) the number of Congressional representatives but that is extremely unlikely since it would reduce the influence of existing Congressional seats.