If Hillary Runs Will She Win?

Following up on my last post, Sean Trende wonders if the odds aren’t against Hillary Clinton winning the presidency:

I’d intended to write about the Democratic and Republican primaries this week, but an article from the New Republic’s very smart Danny Vinik caught my eye. So, the primaries will have to wait. Referencing a piece by Ed Luce in the Financial Times, Vinik writes that Luce “overlooks a fundamental reason why [Hillary Clinton] is the early [2016] favorite: The economy is quickly improving under a Democratic president.”

Vinik then cites political science research suggesting that the economy is the crucial factor in predicting elections. This is true. But there are other factors to consider as well; no model of which I’m aware goes “full economic determinism.”

When we look at the overall political science view of elections, the picture is far less rosy for Clinton (or any other Democratic nominee). The 2016 election looks more like pure tossup; if anything she’s the underdog, not the favorite.

Combine a phlegmatic economy, the benefits of which have yet to trickle down to most Americans, and an unpopular president whose post-midterms choices fail to suggest he’ll make an end of term rally and it does not appear to me that history favors a victory for Sec. Clinton.

I have long believed that this Dance of the Seven Veils that Ms. Clinton has been doing about running for president has been a device for boosting her speaking fees and that she does not plan to run. The next question: will her speaking fees be higher if she doesn’t run for president or if she runs and loses?