If you have not heard the news, President Trump has tested positive for SARS-CoV-2:
(CNN)President Donald Trump announced early Friday that he and his wife both tested positive for the coronavirus, an extraordinary development coming months into a global pandemic and in the final stretch of his reelection campaign in which he has flouted experts’ guidance on preventing the disease’s spread.
The diagnosis amounts to the most serious known health threat to a sitting American president in decades. At 74 years old and obese, Trump falls into the highest risk category for serious complications from the disease, which has killed more than 200,000 Americans and more than 1 million people worldwide.
At this point both the president and First Lady are, apparently, asymptomatic. I understand the remaining debates have already been cancelled. Of course, I wish both of them well and a speedy recovery.
What can one say? How do you think events will unfold?
- No change. The president will continue on as before. The president will be defeated in his re-election bid.
- No change. The president will continue on as before. The president will be re-elected, possibly receiving sympathy votes.
- Contracting COVID-19 will actually increase the likelihood of the president being re-elected.
- The president will become sick enough that Mike Pence will need to take over the responsibilities of the president. The presidented will be defeated in his re-election bid.
- The president will become sick enough that Mike Pence will need to take over the responsibilities of the president. The president will be re-elected, possibly receiving sympathy votes.
- The president will become sick enough that Mike Pence will need to take over the responsibilities of the president. Mike Pence will become sick enough that he is unable to do so; Nancy Pelosi will assume the responsibilities of the presidency. Trump is defeated in his re-election bid.
- The president will become sick enough that Mike Pence will need to take over the responsibilities of the president. Mike Pence will become sick enough that he is unable to do so; Nancy Pelosi will assume the responsibilities of the presidency. The president will be re-elected.
- The president will die and be succeeded by Mike Pence. Mike Pence will be defeated in the presidential election.
- The president will die and be succeeded by Mike Pence. Mike Pence will be elected president.
- The president will die and be succeeded by Mike Pence. Mike Pence will become sick enough that he is unable to do so; Nancy Pelosi will assume the responsibilities of the presidency. Joe Biden will be elected president.
- The president will die and be succeeded by Mike Pence. Mike Pence will become sick enough that he is unable to do so; Nancy Pelosi will assume the responsibilities of the presidency. Mike Pence will be elected president.
- The president will die and be succeeded by Mike Pence. Mike Pence will become sick enough that he is unable to do so; Nancy Pelosi will assume the responsibilities of the presidency. Joe Biden will be elected president. He will die or become permanently incapacitated so that he cannot perform the responsibilities of the presidency. Kamala Harris will become president. (This has been suggested as a possibility by a regular commenter.)
That doesn’t cover all of the possibilities but it’s a start. Needless to say, as the stock market is telling us, it’s a time of considerable uncertainty.
You missed a step. If Trump dies or somehow leaves office, Pence becomes President, and he then nominates someone to be Vice President. This happened when Ford succeeded Nixon. If something happens to Pence, the new VP takes over, and Pelosi stays as Speaker.
Trump is the obese older male in the highest risk group, but that still leaves him an 80% chance or so of doing well. So the most likely event is that he does well, tells everyone Covid is no big deal and life goes on. The second most likely possibility is that he is pretty sick for a while then gets better. Being the fat male who lives on fast food he is high risk for the group that takes a month or two to fully recover. He can still function as POTUS during that time, just wont be flying around and no rallies. Will need O2 some of the time and get short of breath easily. No golf. (The horrors!)
If he dies, and to be clear I hope he never has any symptoms at all as this is a bad way to die, I dont see why Pence would be likely to also die. So we would probably have Pence take over. I dont think that would change the election much. Might actually help the GOP as people wouldnt be motivated to vote against Trump.
Steve
It’s just a Trump ruse to get out of any further debates with Joe Biden. But, he will recover in a few weeks and announce that the infection is nothing to be concerned about, get back to normal and business as usual.
Or he is really sick and it’s become obvious we have no idea what will happen, the election, the economy, the whole governance system will be in chaos because he has left us with no functioning administration. 32 days folks, all this and more in 32 days.
Which is why the first two alternatives I presented start with “Nothing changes”.
Trump, Pence, Biden, Harris and Pelosi all become infected and die. However, on the strength of his brilliant recent public commentary LaBron James is made president by acclamation.
Hey, this is fun……..
Kanye West is probably more likely.
Biden announces he too, is testing positive.
Both candidates become ill enough their survival is in some doubt and the election is postponed indefinitely.
I think it is plausible Pence has to take over; Biden wins but he got COVID from the debate and is extremely weakened by COVID and Harris takes over soon after Inauguration Day. That’s 4 Presidents in 6 months.
The good news is the VP nominees have tested negative and given they have been campaigning separately from the Presidential candidates; their risk is not elevated.
But gosh; what would happen if both campaigns Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates clearly looked like they couldn’t serve before Election Day.
That would be true electoral chaos; the electoral college electors would determine the fate of the nation instead of a rubber stamp.
Well there you have it. The Kanye – LaBron debate. Moderated by Colin Kaepernick.
Its time to elect Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho. He is out there somewhere.
Steve
Out there? They’re probably a voting block.
Wow, some of the conspiracy theories I’m reading online are out there, even for 2020. I guess we have moved away from Trump as the impulsive incompetent, back to Trump the evil, calculating manipulator.
I have always thought that the trope of Trump as a stupid, racist incompetent was a strategic error on the part of Democrats.
I should also mention that, given the apparent psychological need Democrats have to view Democratic presidents as brilliant polymaths, it will be interesting to see how President Biden is portrayed. If you don’t believe my observation about “apparent psychological need”, look more closely at the portrayals of Carter, Clinton, and Obama, noting that Johnson is now an unperson as was Harry Truman for decades.
I think the reality is that presidents are, with only a few exceptions, completely typical members of the “professional class” including IQs between 115 and 130 or so. You will see extravagant claims of genius-level intelligence for Democratic presidents with very little in the way of empirical evidence supporting it (along with claims of stupidity on the part of Republican presidents). Joe Biden’s public record is so long and deep that will be hard to claim for Biden. Such claims are not as frequently made for Democratic vice presidents but I expect them for Kamala Harris. There isn’t much empirical evidence for it.
I spent much of the morning on these annoying zoom calls related to work matters. I’ve since done a quick scan of various blogs.
The conspiracy theories amuse, and separate the serious from unserious people. I don’t do Facebook or Twitter, but understand that they are littered with death wishes. Classy.
I toured one thread at OTB to discover that my good buddy, Michael Reynolds, who I always held in low regard, is among those hoping for Trump’s death. What can you say except “please seek professional psychological help.”
hoping for Trump’s death?
And miss the sight of Trump in an orange jumpsuit and leg irons? That or death, he can’t have both.
From WP today Monday Oct 5, 2020
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump · 39m I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!
I think we may have just had our 5th Ave moment..
“Trump’s ‘Don’t Be Afraid’ Comments Outrage Public Health Experts”
Apparently when you are president of this country and have a highly infectious disease you can infect anyone at anytime without consequences?
Is there a difference between shooting someone with a gun or infecting them with a serious disease?