The siege of Gaza continues. The Israelis are not allowing water, food, or fuel to enter the district until the Israeli hostages are released. The BBC reports:
“No electrical switch will be turned on, no water hydrant will be opened and no fuel truck will enter,” said energy minister Israel Katz.
Israeli troops are mobilizing at the border.
How will this crisis end?
- The hostages will be released, the siege lifted, and everything will go back to a dreary normal
- The Israelis will conduct a house-to-house search of Gaza for the hostages with bitter urban warfare every step of the way. Some hostages will be found, some found dead, some not found at all.
- The Israelis will stop bombing Gaza when they think they have exacted enough revenge, i.e. stop short of their stated objective.
- The Israelis will clear a buffer zone between Israel and Gaza which will be surveilled around the clock. That also stops short of their stated objective.
- The Israelis will assume the hostages are dead and kill every man, woman, and child in Gaza.
- The present Israel-Hamas war will expand into a regional conflict.
I continue to believe that the situations with the Israelis and Palestinians are not symmetrical. The retort to that has been that events have not proceeded as I suggested they would to which I respond, how do they know? Every year in the last 30 years, indeed, since the founding of Hamas, Israel has experienced some terrorist violence, e.g. attacks, bombings, rockets and mortars, etc. For events to unfold as I have suggested the Palestinians would need to refrain from political violence for some period of time.
The Israelis and Palestinians have irreconcilable objectives. Both think the entirety of the land of Israel belongs to them. If the Israelis stopped ratcheting up their security measures, more Israelis would be killed. If the Palestinians stopped engaging in political violence, the Israelis might be able to relax their security measures. See? Not symmetrical.
Every year Israel settles more of the West Bank, but it’s OK because Israel is never wrong. Clearly the land is all theirs and the Palestinians have no right to it or no right to complain. They most certainly do not have the right to fight.
Steve
It’s all right when they are not slaughtering Palestinians to do it. There is no inherent right to a piece of land.
Totally agree. The land is clearly theirs. Just because some palestinian and his family has owned and worked a piece of land for a few hundred years doesnt mean the land is theirs. Israel has every right to have the IDF show up and remove those people. The Palestinians have no right or cause to fight. The Israelis went from no one on the West Bank to 500,000 since 1967. They need to keep expanding that and get rid of the last Palestinians. They should accelerate the settlements even more.
Steve
You don’t read very well, steve. NO PALESTINIAN and his family has owned and worked a piece of the land in traditional Palestine for a few hundred years. The Ottoman did not allow it. Contrariwise, there ARE Jews who’ve owned pieces of the land for a few hundred years because the Ottoman allowed Jews and Christians to own land in the Ottoman Empire.
But read my subsequent post. The claims of the Israelis are equally BS.
Probably some combination of B, C & D.
As to the other options, I think Hamas was motivated by the drift of Arab countries into formal normalization of relations with Israel and the need to scream for attention and relevance. Those countries will still do what they have done for the last 50 years, very little of any significance. A lot of people living in Gaza will be killed from Israel simply pursuing their objectives with military force, no conscionable reason to go Carthage on Gaza.
I didn’t state my guess. I think D would be the smartest outcome for the Israelis but it looks like they’re preparing for B and F is looking more likely with every passing hour.
Hmmm. Multiple sources claim that mulk was common in the Ottoman Empire by the late18th century, including Palestine. The Turkish government has provided records showing ownership in the area in the 1800s and early 1900s. I suppose it’s possible that the Palestinians who claim to have families who have lived on a piece of land for a couple of hundred years never actually owned it, but isn’t that moot? It has already been determined, correctly, that Israel can legitimately use the IDF to remove Palestinians no matter how long the family has been there and they are not allowed to fight back.
The answer is D. They sort of have that already with the wall, but they will expand it. Since the land belongs to them anyway it is their right to do whatever they want. That would probably include gradually increasing the size of the buffer zone which would be a graceful way of allowing the Palestinians to leave the land they should have never occupied anyway. The Palestinians have no right to resist this so if they then they should accelerate the process.
Steve