At 1945 Robert Farley lists five ways the Russian-Ukraine War might turn into a global nuclear war:
- Russia escalates to de-escalate
- Ukrainian forces fire from the wrong side of the border
- Russia accidentally strays across a border
- Russia intentionally retaliates for arms transfers and foreign fighters
- NATO vs. Russia: World War III Possible?
IMO the first is quite likely. Our leaders should recognize that our supplying Ukraine with munitions is a violation of our own neutrality (neutrals cannot take sides). Indeed, the economic sanctions we have imposed themselves may be considered belligerent acts.
Nonetheless Mr. Farley is relative optimistic:
It’s important to understand that even if there’s a limited engagement between NATO and Russian forces this does not guarantee escalation to strategic nuclear warfare. In every one of the crises discussed above, both sides would have multiple opportunities to step back from the brink and de-escalate the situation.
I’m not sure how he reconciles that with the reality that every wargaming of such a conflict has always gone nuclear.
Which is why I have pointed out, and been so adamant, that the primary policy should be non-confrontational: drill US energy like there is no tomorrow. Bring the world price down. All the excuses offered, especially that it will take time, are diversionary.
What is done is all but done in Ukraine. We have lost a year on energy already. Waiting does not help. Recognize that Joe Biden will go down in history as making one of the largest strategic blunders ever. All to please some environmental loons.
Those offering up excuses for not acting robustly remind me of incompetent management teams in turnarounds. It will take time.
It will be hard. It will upset the normal order. Etc Etc. All true, but not relevant to getting to the task of rectifying the situation starting this very hour. Companies that don’t have what it takes to do what must get done tend to end up bankrupt or owned by creditors.
Now on to fertilizer………
Speaking of bad policy. It was only a matter of time.
At least we now know how to defeat covid: have Putin invade a country.
https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1500911978352500737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1500911978352500737%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcitizenfreepress.com%2Fbreaking%2Fremarkable-clip-doctors-are-waking-up-and-apologizing%2F
Lower the speed limit on the highway to 55 miles an hour
Strongly encourage car pooling
Ration fuel with coupons
Work from home
Drive less
Lower it to 35.
Put on a warm sweater.
Allow drivers to fuel on odd and even numbered days based on their license plate numbers.
Offer cash. For clunkers!
Putin has asked us to refrain from those cross border arms shipments, he’s even offered to shut down his natural gas pipeline to Europe as incentive.
This, or any war between the great powers will only go nuclear accidentally.
We need to figure out how to fight a war with communication channels to the enemy open, clear intentions and deliberate actions.
We should blow that pipeline up ourselves, after letting Putin know our intentions first of course.
Western energy independence.
We had 800 rigs running until early 2020 when Biden ordered them shut down. They have been steadily climbing since mid 2020. Biden needs to order those other 150 back into action right away. We export oil to China. We can stop that and keep it here.
Of course China can easily soak up all of China’s oil exports it looks like so with oil being kind of fungible I think China makes out pretty well unless, maybe even if, Russia can make India a competitor for that oil. China could really drive the price down. That said, would China want to be so dependent upon Russia for its oil. Not so sure. Guess they could send more to Eritrea.
https://www.worldstopexports.com/top-15-crude-oil-suppliers-to-china/
Steve
So much boneheadedness. So little perspective.
Rounded:
Global energy consumption has increased 50% since 2000 due to population growth and GDP growth. Unless you are in the camp of state mandated vasectomies or declining income per capita it is obvious you have an energy consumption freight train coming at you. For perspective, that growth is 2x total US demand. Not a small number.
How was that energy demand met? A 30% increase in in global oil production; a 60% increase in global coal production. Alternatives are estimated to have replaced 2% of the need. Tiny. For Christ sake, wood accounts for more energy than all the solar panels combined. And 97% of transportation energy is still fossil fuel.
Estimates by various governmental, think tank and investor driven researchers conclude that even with an all out balls to the wall effort on alternatives 50% of energy will still be fossil fuel driven.
Perspective: to do this rare earths, Ni, Co, Cu and Li production are variously estimated to require increases of 700 – 4000%. And who is currently in control? Russia and China. Great. Good strategic move to put them in control of our future. I read concerns about cost escalation. Talk about cost escalation. Raw material costs are 60-70% of the cost of manufacture of batteries. Russia and China will coldly squeeze our balls.
Despite hand wringing about shale costs, it has added 300% more to energy supply that solar and wind combined. And Bob makes a fatal assumption: stagnant technology. He should know better.
Is Biden really so stupid he doesn’t see that lowering energy costs through alternatives is a fools errand in any time frame less than 50 years? Or is he so political that he would damn the US and its citizens for his own political gain. That question is a toss up. It is not hard to see that Baghdad Jen is just that stupid. (And arrogant at the same time; a bad mix) The only other conclusion one can reach is that this is all by design. After all, the covid public policy response wheels are coming off as we speak. (Where is Fauci??)
The best we can do is be charitable and ascribe ignorance to the politicians. Then this green energy thing is just magical thinking.
A final thought. Some have tried to pin energy price rises on Ukraine or the pandemic recovery. Graphics have already been produced showing this to be nonsense. But here is a statistic for you: in 2016-2019 (pre) US oil imports were 157,500,000/mo. Today they are 221,500,000/mo. Quite an increase under Uncle Joe. And demand has barely recovered to pre pandemic.
I know this stuff doesn’t sit well with Biden supporters and others with political axes to grind. But the global energy industry and its machinations don’t really care.
There is no fundamental misunderstanding. They are lying for political reasons.
re: Psaki’s unused oil and gas leases BS
Mike Sommers, the chief executive officer of the API who was in Houston Monday for CERAWeek by S&P Global, said the industry is using a higher percentage of federal onshore and offshore leases than at any time in the past, and it’s continuing to increase production to meet surging demand.
Forced to backpedal after a year of cramming through its “green” agenda which has led to a historic undercapitalization in oil industry spending which in turn is a major culprit behind the current inability to respond to the Russian supply shock (see “Will ESG Trigger Energy Hyperinflation”), the Biden administration has repeatedly pointed to the number of approved but untapped drilling permits on federal land when questioned about how U.S. production can rise, and what the federal government can do to help.
“There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of the administration as to how the process actually works,†Sommers said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference, Bloomberg reports.
“Just because you have a lease doesn’t mean there’s actually oil and gas in that lease, and there has to be a lot of development that occurs between the leasing and then ultimately permitting for that acreage to be productive,†he said. “I think that they’re purposefully misusing the facts here to advantage their position.â€
Ya don’t say.
Germany is a major producer and consumer of compressed wood pellets for heating. Unfortunately, a lot of the wood they use for wood pellets has been supplied by clear-cutting old growth forests in the New World, taking something that might have been renewable and changing it into net carbon emissions.
““Just because you have a lease doesn’t mean there’s actually oil and gas in that lease, and there has to be a lot of development that occurs between the leasing and then ultimately permitting for that acreage to be productive,”
1) Really? They lease land without knowing if there is oil and gas on it? Why would they do that? These are top secret lands they cant survey ahead of time? Granted, the leases are really cheap at $1.50 per acre per year.
2) Maybe we should look at drilling permits. Per year for the last 10 they have issued the following number.
4256, 3770, 3769, 3508, 2184, 2486, 3388, 3181, 4226, 3557. Also, remember that working rigs and oil production were way down in 2020. So as I said above, it appears that the issue is land leasing, or granting drilling permits but the fact that Biden ordered fewer rigs to work in 2020 and he has not ordered enough them to go back to work.
https://www.blm.gov/programs-energy-and-minerals-oil-and-gas-oil-and-gas-statistics
Steve