At Bloomberg Peter Orszag, David Gluckman, and Stephen H. Sands point out that a recent survey of biopharmaceutical executives found them much less sanguine about the prospects for a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 than politicians or, I presume, the public at large:
Most health care leaders also believe it may very well be more than a year or two before there is an effective Covid-19 treatment — if one ever materializes. Indeed, only 49% of health care industry leaders put the likelihood of such a therapeutic at better than even.
Consequently, two-thirds of industry leaders expect the pandemic to continue into the second half of 2021 or beyond — a notably longer time frame than that envisioned by many people in government. The danger is that federal fiscal support will be withdrawn before the pandemic is actually over, and then the underlying economic damage will become more visible.
The emphasis is mine. Also note the pie chart above. 2% of the industry leaders think the pandemic will never be over. Note that it’s in their financial interest to believe that a safe, effective vaccine will be developed.
The bottom line is that nearly two-thirds openly believe that the pandemic will continue at least until this time next year. Add ten points for interest.
Wonder who they mean by industry leaders? I tend to be skeptical also, but then we have never really had such a global effort before and we do have some new tech. It does look like the virus is fairly stable. I can see the possibility of a vaccine by next year, if we are going to have one. I can also see never having one and would place odds of that at over 2%. I still think the fall will tell us how bad Covid can get, if it has a seasonal peak. If it adds to flu effects then could be awful. Will see. I guess we could prepare for that but that would be seen as being wussies wouldnt it?
Steve
They are only identified as “184 C-level executives and 37 investors across three sectors: Biopharmaceuticals; Medical Devices and Diagnostics; and Healthcare Services”.
The link to the Executive Summary of the report is here.
The Pandemic will be over if Biden is elected. If Trump is reelected, the pandemic will continue until he is removed.
According to the CDC the number of daily deaths are approaching the lower limit of an official pandemic. If the deaths numbers pass that threshold and the pandemic continues it’s anther sign how politicized the reaction to Kung Flu has become.
“The Pandemic will be over if Biden is elected. If Trump is reelected, the pandemic will continue until he is removed.”
Truer words were never spoken.