How Long Can You Tread Water?

The El Niño event we’re experiencing right now has a clear parallel. The El Niño of 1998 which bore remarkable similarities to our present one:

The comparisons between the ‘97-’98 El Niño and the 2015-16 El Niños has been steadily stacking up for awhile now. The first lookalike comparison that drew attention was ‘97 and 2015, but researchers were still cautious about reading too much in to the comparison. This latest data of sea surface heights from NASA JPL, however, shows even more similarities setting up between right around the beginnings of ‘98 and 2016.

This is particularly important because in the 1997-98 El Niño, which the 2015-16 El Niño seems to be mirroring closely, early ‘98 was when we saw the worst and most powerful El Niño weather patterns: intense ice and snow storms, flooding, even some unlikely tornado landings.

Here’s what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has to say about the “El Niño Winter of ’97-’98” (PDF):

The first two months of 1998 were the warmest and wettest in the 104-year record of temperatures and precipitation measurements for the contiguous 48 states. During the period January – February, the national average temperature was 37.5 degrees F compared with a normal of 32.1 degrees F. The previous record was 37.0 degrees F in 1990. For precipitation, 6.01 inches fell, compared with a normal of 4.05 inches. The previous record was 5.7 inches in 1979.

For the winter (December through February) as a whole, however, temperatures and precipitation were not as extreme, due to December being somewhat cooler and drier (as a national average) than January and February. The winter of ‘97-’98 was the second warmest on record and the seventh wettest. The normal national average temperature for the winter months of December, January, and February is 32.3 degrees F. This winter’s figure was 36.4 degrees F. The record was 36.6 degrees F set in 1991-1992. For the three-month period, the normal precipitation value for the country is 6.35 inches. This winter’s figure was 7.96 inches, compared with the record 8.5 inches in 1932-1933.

California and North Dakota had their wettest February on record. Florida, Maryland, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Virginia had their second wettest February since records began in 1895. The warmest February on record took place in much of the upper midwest and parts of the east including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut. Nationwide energy savings were estimated at 10% (i.e., 10% lower heating costs as compared to normal winter).