How Does He Know?

Yesterday in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz accused the Trump Administration of lying about his state:

The Trump administration’s assault on Minnesota long ago stopped being a matter of immigration enforcement. It is a campaign of organized brutality against the people of our state. It isn’t just. It isn’t legal. And, critically, it isn’t making anyone any safer.

Quite the opposite: Immigration agents have now shot and killed two of our neighbors: Renee Good and Alex Pretti. And there are countless other stories of protesters and bystanders being physically attacked by federal agents, to say nothing of the chaos and violence being unleashed against the targets of these raids, many of whom have done nothing wrong except exist as a person of color.

The pretext for all this is the Trump administration’s insistence that our immigration laws would otherwise go unenforced. This federal occupation of Minnesota is, administration officials insist, about our predilection for releasing “violent criminal illegal aliens” from state custody.

I can’t stress this enough: The Trump administration has its facts wrong about Minnesota.

My question for Gov. Walz is how does he know?

I use the word “lie” with a very specific meaning: the knowing telling of an untruth with the intent to deceive.

For example, Gov. Walz declaims:

Some of the administration’s claims are ridiculous on their face. For example: It claims that 1,360 non-U.S. citizens are in Minnesota prisons. The truth: Our total state prison population is roughly 8,000, and only 207 of them are noncitizens.

The sole means the state appears to use to determine whether someone being held by its Department of Corrections is a citizen is self-identification. Absent documentary evidence of inquiry beyond self-identification, the most reasonable inference is that no such inquiry occurs as a matter of routine practice. That would imply that the DoC only notifies ICE that it is detaining a non-citizen if the detainee identifies himself or herself as a non-citizen.

In other words individuals have every incentive to avoid identifying themselves as non-citizens. In this context self-identification is not neutral reporting; it is a strategic choice made under conditions where disclosure carries clear legal risk including risk of removal from the United States at the end of the prison term.

I don’t believe that Gov. Walz is lying. I think he is equivocating or, at the very least, speaking in ignorance. I am confident that the number of prisoners being held by Minnesota’s DoC is around 8,000. What we can say with confidence is not how many non-citizens are incarcerated in Minnesota but that the state’s own methodology makes confident claims impossible

7 comments… add one
  • steve Link

    Per Chat-GPT-

    “Verification of Citizenship in Minnesota State Prisons
    Compliance with ICE

    Minnesota state prisons are required to notify Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) when a noncitizen enters their custody. This means that the state actively verifies the immigration status of individuals who are incarcerated.
    Data on Noncitizens

    As of recent reports, there are approximately 207 noncitizens in Minnesota state prisons. The Minnesota Department of Corrections (DOC) has stated that they fully comply with ICE detainer requests, which are administrative requests to hold individuals for potential deportation.”

    Multiple other sources confirm that number so I am pretty sure he is correct. What we dont know, and I dont know if it is knowable, is how many are in county jails. Several sources claim that number is about 100 but given the rapid turnover, many stays are only for a few hours and the average is probably less than a month, I am guessing that’s an educated guess.

    Of note, the DOC in MN claims they have always turned illegal inmates over to ICE at the end of their term. They have asked ICE to provide them with any names and times that did not happen. They have not cited any yet. Also kind of funny, there are anecdotes from local sheriffs claiming they have called ICE when they had an illegal but ICE told them they were too busy to come pick them up.

    Steve

  • PD Shaw Link

    The Governor is lying. What DHS stated is that “We are calling on Governor Waltz and Mayor Frey to honor the more than 1,360 detainers of the illegal aliens in Minnesota jails.” The detainers were not just issued to state penitentiaries.

    This was published January 23, 2026, so these are detainers declined before this administration. From FY 2023 through February 6, 2025, Minnesota declined the seventh most detainers and the Hennepin County (Minneapolis) jail declined the 11th most detainers. All of the top ten facilities were in California, except for the Cook County Jail (Illinois) and the Fairfax County jail (Virginia).

    There is certainly an issue of whether the Governor of Minnesota has the authority to accept detainers on behalf of all detention facilities in the state. I suspect not. The Hennepin County Sheriff has a jail policy not to honor ICE detainers without judicial authority that began in 2014.

    But the Governor’s lies obscure accountability. He could have said state facilities account for a relatively small portion of detention facilities in the state and the state will honor detainers to the extent of notifying federal authorities a time and place that they will be released. Better yet, he could have encouraged those other facilities to honor detainers at least to the extent the federal government asks for release dates for serious criminals like those being mentioned. The Governor’s approach prevents him from alienating the open borders faction in his party.

    One other observation, California had 52 percent of all rejected detainers in the country during that time period. There is California and then a large gap before the next six states that include Minnesota. Given that Minnesota has a medium population with medium levels of illegal immigration, for Hennepin County to be this high on the list is pretty striking.

  • steve Link

    The Minnesota governor, per Chat-GPT, doesn’t have control over what the counties do, so for the part of the system over which he had control he was correct. After some more reading it does bring up some questions. First, I find it odd that county jails are expected to hold people on detainer without any compensation. Every source says that these county jails will honor the detainee if there is a warrant. Why doesnt ICE just provide a warrant?

  • I’m trying to figure out what you’re talking about, steve. As in every other U. S. state of which I am aware, in Minnesota counties are creatures of the state government and strictly subordinate to it. That’s true even in “home rule” counties.

    If you don’t believe me, ask ChatGPT the specific question: “Are counties in Minnesota sovereign?”

  • Zachriel Link

    Dave Schuler: As in every other U. S. state of which I am aware, in Minnesota counties are creatures of the state government and strictly subordinate to it.

    While counties are creations of the state, the governor is not the king of Minnesota. Laws and judicial precedent govern the relationship between the state and county governments. Under Minnesota law, a county can’t hold someone past their release date, as it would be considered a re-arrest.

    ETA: See Minnesota Statutes §§ 629.30 and 629.34

  • What you’re saying is that Minnesota law prohibits the cooperation that the governor said the state was engaging in. In other words, you’re agreeing with what PD Shaw said above.

  • Zachriel Link

    Dave Schuler: What you’re saying is that Minnesota law prohibits the cooperation that the governor said the state was engaging in.

    It means the governor has more control over state prisoners than over county prisoners. Your claim was that counties are “strictly subordinate to” the state, which is true. But that is not the same as saying counties are “strictly subordinate to” the governor. The governor is not the king of Minnesota.

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