At Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Kyle Kondik has updated their assessment of the 2022 House of Representative elections and the news is not good for Democrats. More than 90% of the movement has been in favor of Republicans. Here’s the meat of the post:
Our topline assessment of the House picture has not really changed since the Dobbs decision. We continue to see the Republicans as very strongly favored to win the majority with seats to spare, as they only need to win 5 more seats than they won in 2020 (213) in order to flip the House. Our best guess is a GOP net gain somewhere in the 20s. Something lower than that would be, in our view, not that bad for Democrats given how we see the political environment, as it would put them in the position of holding the Republicans to a relatively small House majority (low 230s or even 220s) that could be vulnerable in the 2024 election. If Republicans get over 30 — which is certainly within the realm of possibility and would represent a strong showing — it would give them a bigger cushion for 2024 and beyond. A 35-seat net gain would put the Republicans at 248, surpassing 2014 as the biggest modern Republican majority. The GOP continues to have a path to such a majority even if we wouldn’t project it at this point (we looked at that path earlier this year, and we will do so again).
The advise under such circumstances would typically be to appeal to the base but I’m not sure who the Democratic base is anymore. Black voters, the elderly, public employees? Turnout is notoriously low for younger voters, particularly for a midterm election. I’m not even sure that appealing to the base is enough anymore.
“…I’m not sure who the Democratic base is anymore.”
You are probably more representative of the traditional base, along with so called “working class” types. But Democrats decided to Balkanize the base, while allowing themselves to be hijacked by elite types who can afford to engage in just bizzarro culture concerns at the expense of the historical working class economic concerns.
Wall Street went left. Large corporate went left. Both in pursuit of regulatory capture. Big Education, well that’s always been left. Science is going left, in pursuit of filthy lucre represented by government grants. Public employees just plain and simply took bribes for votes, although only the magnitude of that is new.
Meanwhile, America First, (or “Ultra MAGA” if you listen to Democrats) has focused on traditional principles, and general economic welfare based upon opportunity, not perceived grievance.
I’ve said it before, I will again. Government, especially Washington, has become nothing but a mechanism for graft. (If I were ever really down on my luck I’d run for office.) And Trump represented a threat. So he had to be destroyed. People who don’t understand that are just plain dumb, or willfully reject reality. Read The Bulwark, for example.
â€And Trump represented a threat. So he had to be destroyed. People who don’t understand that are just plain dumb, or willfully reject reality. Read The Bulwark, for exampleâ€
The following article feeds right into Drew’s above comment. .
https://compactmag.com/article/they-can-t-let-him-back-in
” And Trump represented a threat.”
LOL. Only to stuff you don’t like anyway, mostly. You were still going to get your tax cuts and selected regulatory cuts favoring businesses and people Republicans like. His biggest threat was actually lack of competence and leadership skills. He inherited a strong economy and it continued on the same trajectory. We generally give POTUS credit for that. However, we always knew he would fail in a crisis and for the most part he did. We also knew he lacks political courage so he wouldn’t do anything that might actually lose votes, like leave Afghanistan or make a sincere effort on issues like health care or Social Security.
Grievance? Is the GOP anything but grievance anymore? Kind of miss the old Republicans who might have been cruel, indifferent or self centered. Now the self pity and whining is just awful.
Steve
Steve, your evaluation represents but a faction of people having a preset opinion of Trump – all bad with no redeeming qualities, no matter what he did or how well the economy performed under his leadership. In the eyes, of the working/middle class, though, there was significantly higher household incomes, less red tape to open a small business, higher optimism of success, no wars on the precipice of breaking out, low, contained, stable inflation. However, as laid out by Dr. Robert Epstein, years ago, big tech arranges stories displaying negative publications out in front of the ones more favorable to trump.
Essentially, the atmosphere surrounding the Trump presidency was tainted, at the get go, by the smog of resentment continuously churned by the Dems and their reliable cohorts ——> establishment politicians, big tech, social and legacy media platforms, and the FBI, CIA, DOJ higher ups bent on obstructing or smearing his presidency (evidence given over recently by whistleblowers having senior positions in these departments).
In my estimation the democrat party has devolved into a crass, self-serving, entity, drunk with power and putting most of it’s energy into retaining this power. Despite all the chinks in Trump’s personality and presidential demeanor, he remains more a North Star representing “doing good for the people†than anyone occupying today’s democrat leadership positions.
I’m with steve. Everything was horrible during the Trump years. And they are so good during Biden’s. Anyone can see it. Just look at Biden’s sparkling poll numbers and you can see just about everyone agrees.
Pertinent to a recent thread on AGW. The data gathering protocols are so bad that a college sophomore could see the problems. It must be intentional.
https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/publications/2022_Surface_Station_Report.pdf
Oh no Drew. The Trump economy was the best ever in the whole history of the world. We dont really count the bad parts. And he didnt achieve the GDP growth he said he would and it was about the same as Obama but it was still better somehow. And did I say we dont count the last year?
Steve
Jan: In the eyes, of the working/middle class, though, there was significantly higher household incomes, less red tape to open a small business, higher optimism of success, no wars on the precipice of breaking out, low, contained, stable inflation.
At least he made the trains run on time.
Trump had worst GDP growth since Hoover