Hiccup

or What Happened?

I touched on this yesterday but I want to dig into the results of the election a little more deeply. Although it’s still premature I think it’s likely that when the counting is over and the dust of the lawsuits has settled, that VP Biden will have been elected president. It will likely be a very narrow victory but a victory nonetheless.

Meanwhile down-ballot Republicans are likely to hold the Senate and gain seats in the House although I believe they will fall short of taking control of it. In my recollection it is practically unprecedented for an incumbent president to be defeated without his party also being defeated.

There is an explanation for what looks like it has happened that should be considered. Is it possible that voters thought they were voting for the third Obama term? Treating this election as a re-election campaign rather than as a new administration would explain what we’re seeing.

In that interpretation the Trump years are a sort of unexpected and unwelcome interruption, a sort of hiccup in the Obama Administration.

I don’t agree with those who think that Joe Biden will be able to impel a return to the status quo ante. Not only has too much changed over the last four years but the most pressing challenge facing him (other than coping with divided government) will be COVID-19 and, whatever he and other Democratic politicians have been saying, that is beyond our control. Even if a safe, effective vaccine were available tomorrow it would be a year or more before the crisis could be deemed over. Fewer than half of the people get flu shots in any given year. Not only will vaccinating enough of the population be a daunting logistical task—throwing money at it will not be enough—but quite a few people will refuse the vaccine.

No, there will be periodic outbreaks and freakouts by local political leaders for the foreseeable future regardless of what is done by the federal government.

I’ll have more remarks what’s unfolding throughout the day.