If anyone knows of polling results on a Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump faceoff in November with a breakdown by race, I would appreciate the reference. The most recent I’ve been able to find is from SurveyUSA.
Keep in mind that if Trump can get 20% of the black vote, he wins. If Trump can get 10% of the black vote and attract enough disaffected white voters, he wins.
There are a lot of bad assumptions and misconceptions out there about this election cycle. Better data might help.
Should expect record Latino turnout.
Steve
A wapo article gave this:
Trump leading 49 to 40 with whites.
Clinton leading 73 to 19 with non-whites.
Trump at 49 is what’s scaring the GOP.
So far the polls have been fairly accurate. It is was just no one believed that Trump could win the nomination. I’m getting the sense that the same people who didn’t believe this are now intent on disbelieving the numbers against Trump.
Trump won’t get significant numbers of black voters. That’s on a par with people who each cycle predict that this time around Jews will abandon the Democrats.
February 17, 2016 USA Today/Suffolk University poll:
If Hillary Clinton vs. Trump, percentage who vote Trump:
53% of Whites
37% of Hispanics
7% of Blacks
(If you take out the undecideds, its 57% of Whites; 47% of Hispanics; and 8% of Blacks)
http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10741.php
PD:
37% of the Latino vote would be shocking for Trump. Romney received 27%. And Trump’s unfavorables are worse than Romney’s; they’re around 80%.
Anyone who thinks that “Hispanics” vote in a monolith is mistaken. There are lots of divides: Mexican vs. non-Mexican and those who came here legally vs. those who came here illegally. There is a sizeable minority of Hispanics who believe in Trump’s wall.
According to Gallup Trump’s favorablity with Hispanics is 12%. That’s with 89% familiarity. Here’s the link:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/189887/trump-major-image-problem-hispanics.aspx
I’ll donate 1000 to charity for every point Trump gets over Romney’s 27% of Latinos.
Things to remember:
1) The real race has not yet begun.
2) Hillary has been defined by decades of attacks, Trump has been defined by The Apprentice, with a new layer now being applied.
3) Hillary has so far racked up a million more votes than Trump.
4) Positives and negatives shift depending on the point of comparison. That’s one of the reasons Obama’s numbers are rising – his point of contrast was a vaporous, imaginary alternative. Now it’s Hillary and Trump, and he looks better. Polls will mean nothing until we get past the conventions.
That’s an interesting poll, PD. It’s adults rather than likely voters and I think they undersample blacks but it’s still very interesting. It seems to be an outlier but the breakdowns are useful.
MM:
You can’t get at the results of a head-to-head contest by subtracting unfavorables.
I’m not going to put stock in one poll, that was just the only one I found in a quick search that broke out black votes.
Modulo’s poll is of “all Hispanics,” my poll was of “Hispanic likely-voters” in a Clinton-Trump election. IOW, both polls could indeed be representative.
@Dave, I’m not sure I understand your last comment. The Suffolk poll is of adults who intend to vote in the general election.
PD:
Ah. Sorry, misread the first paragraph of the link.