Larry Sabato has an interesting analysis of the prospects for the electoral college in the 2016 election. Here’s his bottom line:
Basically, that if a party wins both Colorado and Virginia, it will win the White House. Both states have hewn closely to the national electoral average for the past two presidential elections, and they are formerly reliable Republican states that have moved in a Democratic direction. The chances of one of them providing the decisive 270th electoral vote to the winner, as Colorado did in 2012 (with Virginia right behind as just a shade more Republican), are high.
The only thing I’d add is that I think the odds are very high that the general election will have a very low turnout. Under those circumstances anything can happen. Remember, Illinois just elected a Republican governor.
I’ll offer my own prediction: Whoever wins is likely going to be worse than the current evil asshole ruining the country.