Yet another news story of significance. A poll taken by the Associated Press and the National Opinion Research Center (NORC is an old client of mine) finds that about half of Americans are willing to be inoculated against COVID-19. From the AP:
WASHINGTON (AP) — As states frantically prepare to begin months of vaccinations that could end the pandemic, a new poll finds only about half of Americans are ready to roll up their sleeves when their turn comes.
The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows about a quarter of U.S. adults aren’t sure if they want to get vaccinated against the coronavirus. Roughly another quarter say they won’t.
Many on the fence have safety concerns and want to watch how the initial rollout fares — skepticism that could hinder the campaign against the scourge that has killed nearly 290,000 Americans. Experts estimate at least 70% of the U.S. population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, or the point at which enough people are protected that the virus can be held in check.
The associated infographic, breaking down the responses by sex, age, and race, is interesting. Men are more likely to get inoculated than women; the old more likely than the young; whites more likely than blacks.
Maybe it’s of no importance since we can’t inoculate enough people to attain herd immunity over the next few months anyway and opinions may change as more experience is gained. But opinion may change in either direction and, as I have cautioned, how the initial vaccinations are handled by the media could have a substantial impact.
All of this supports my speculation that we’ll still be struggling with COVID-19 in 2022.
There are a lot more vaccines on the way. I think we will probably have enough vaccines by the end of summer. I think that the initial resistance will melt away pretty quickly, assuming no major problems. Hospitals and smaller facilities will figure out distribution issues in a couple of months. The good news is that we dont need 100% compliance to stop major outbreaks. True herd immunity may be achieved at a high percentage but even at 50% we should see big outbreaks gone. At that point it would be problem of the same magnitude maybe just 2-3 times as bad, as the flu. At that point it might actually bee realistic to think that those at most risk would have a chance of being protected or able to protect themselves.
Steve
We’ll probably hit herd immunity with 30% of the population vaccinated and Pew has 60% surveyed would get the vaccine. Don’t need to immunize people that have already been infected to reach HI. Youyang Gu has modeled the path to herd immunity here:
“We believe COVID-19 herd immunity (>60% of population immune) will be reached in the US during summer 2021 (Jul-Sep 2021). At the time herd immunity is reached, roughly half of the immunity will be achieved through natural infection, and the other half will be achieved through vaccination. New infections may become minimal before herd immunity is reached (Jun-Aug 2021). But due to imported cases and localized clusters, it is unlikely that new infections will drop to zero until 2022. Deaths may drop to low levels even earlier (May-Jul 2021), in part due to a vaccine distribution strategy that initially prioritizes high-risk individuals. Once deaths fall to minimal levels, we may begin seeing a relaxation of restrictions. Summarizing the above findings, our best estimate of a complete “return to normal†in the US is mid-summer 2021 (Jun-Aug 2021). We estimate around one-third of the US population (~110 million) will have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus by the end of 2021. That is an additional 40 million infections since mid-December 2020. This translates to a final US COVID-19 death toll of roughly 500,000 (+/-100k) reported deaths, or ~200,000 additional deaths since mid-December 2020.”
He lists all of his assumptions, which I think are conservative, but I wouldn’t bet on the conservative assumptions being wrong because stuff happens. But he doesn’t utilize a heterogeneity model that would lower the HI further.
https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/
I had earlier assumed there’s no reason to give a new vaccine to children who are not at risk from infection. New studies now suggest they may be at more risk than we thought.
https://www.studyfinds.org/children-with-covid-blood-vessel-damage/
How do parents balance the risks?
Gu is the flavor of the month. Could be right but it is a new virus and no one knows for sure, bu this overall premise is correct even if his numbers ending up being off a bit.
Steve