Damon Linker asks some good questions at The Week:
How would NATO countries respond if, for example, Russian forces took the city of Mariupol in southern Ukraine, which combined with the separatist Donbas region to the east would give Russia a land bridge to Crimea (which Moscow annexed in 2014)? Would Western powers be willing to accept that Russian territorial gain in return for the full withdrawal of Putin’s troops from the rest of the country? Or would the U.S. and EU consider that unacceptable on the grounds that it would be a straightforward reward for Putin’s aggression?
And if that kind of face-saving concession is unacceptable, would any lesser concession be satisfactory? Or is Putin’s outright humiliation the goal? Or would even that be insufficient? Must Putin (and his country) suffer punishment? And what would satisfy that demand? The country pushed into economic depression? Staggered by hyperinflation? Putin himself deposed in a coup and hauled before a tribunal in the Hague or left hanging from a lamp post?
It’s hard to say for sure because the West is still in reaction mode. Putin acts and we react. That’s gotten us as surprisingly far — much further than I thought likely. But now that we’ve proclaimed the principle (“this cannot stand”) and acted upon it in the form of crippling sanctions, we desperately need to begin thinking more than one move ahead.
Where’s Putin’s off-ramp? How can we point him in that direction and get him moving toward it? What would make us willing to grant sanctions relief? How can we keep an incredibly tense situation from entering an escalatory spiral that brings the whole world to brink of disaster?
I don’t have any answers—that’s beyond my pay grade. But they are very good questions.
Cool. If Russia gets Donbas can we invade Canada and then agree to leave and as face saving measure we get Alberta? At one point Russia owned Poland. Do they get to invade Poland and then leave but keep half?
I get that these are tough questions but I think the presumption should be that Ukraine is a sovereign country. Russia is trying to take a piece of that sovereign country by force. Russia should leave and if we are seeking justice here common sense says Russia should at least pay for damages caused.
Steve
I agree that Russia should leave. Another question: what if it doesn’t?
I think that we maintain economic pressures and isolation.
Steve
2/3s of Russia’s exports are exempt from sanctions. When you consider that China imports more from Russia than any other country by a significant amount and it has not imposed sanctions that means that almost 80% of Russia’s exports are unaffected by sanctions. The sanctions are mostly performative.
Dave has frequently argued that the US – Russia relationship is the most important in the world, or something to that effect because these are the countries that could destroy everything. So where is that relationship going to be, realizing that Putin has a say in the matter?
I think the sanctions against Russian banks are having broader impact on the Russian economy beyond the energy/food carveouts. Ordinary Russians can’t get to their savings, which is depleting anyway because the Ruble is crashing. That’s non-oligarchic pain.
And while I think the Russian military advance do not meet the professional standards of U.S. armed forces, the odds are still stacked against Ukraine without direct outside military intervention. At a minimum I don’t think they will ever have the military capacity to expel Russian forces. So the West will arm and aid and fight to the last Ukrainian, and hope that non-military pressure on Russians will encourage Putin to capitulate during an occupation. Probably better to hope for palace coup scenario.
I think that Dave and steve’s comments 1-4 are spot on.
I spent most of the day on the golf course, but the pics from Ukraine look awful. Putin went full animal. All we have left is inflicting punishment. A start would be, ahem, energy production balls to the wall. In fact, if there is anything positive to come out of this it will be that the world, especially Europe, gets a wakeup call. Envirostupidity has costs. Mooching on the US for your security has costs. Joe and Rashida are too far gone to see it.