I’m seeing lots of breathless predictions about the outcome of the midterm elections. It’s far too early to tell. So far about 2 million ballots have been cast nationwide that we know of. See also here. In general it is illegal to count votes until election day.
That’s about 1% of registered voters and a greater percentage of likely voters.
If I had to guess I’d say that the Republicans will capture the House but the Senate is too close to call. It could go either way.
There’s no formal definition of a “wave election”. My definition would be an election in one party or the other captures all of its leans, likely, or safe districts plus all of the “too close to tell” districts and some of the other party’s leans, likely, or safe districts. That’s not how the media tend to define it. Roughly, their definition is a “big seat change”. By their definition it is likely to be a wave election but I’ll be surprised if it turns into a wave election by my standards. I’ve been surprised a lot lately.
In theory it’s not too late for a change in, say, the inflation or unemployment rates to cause a change in the trajectory election but in practice I suspect it is.
“In theory it’s not too late for a change in, say, the inflation or unemployment rates to cause a change in the trajectory election but in practice I suspect it is.”
Nothing material is going to change on inflation or jobs by election day. {or should I say, the travesty of election month(s)} The only things that could really change relate to warlike activities (Ukraine and nukes, N Korea screws up and lands a missile in Japan, China/Taiwan), a bullshit virus scare, or a stock market rally – just a bear market trap.
The electorate will speak very soon. We will find out if we are a serious country or not. Because we are not going in the right direction.
I hope the Democrats get slaughtered. If I was Dave or Steve, I would hope so as well. Your party bears no resemblance right now to the traditional Democrat Party of the 50’s, 60’s or 70’s. Its run by power hungry lunatics.
Says the party of Trump (and Oz, Walker, Mastriano, etc).
BTW, no comments on Durham losing again? It was only 3 years ago you were telling us about all of this stuff Durham was going to find. He even handled the case personally to make sure it went well.
Steve
Your truly vapid Democrat talking points are duly noted, steve.
3 1/2 years, twice as long as Mueller, and that is the best you can do? Disappointing. I was hoping to hear some new conspiracy whining. How about the Venezuelans rigged the jury vote count?
Steve
I wouldn’t crow too much about the inability of Durham to convict someone who lied to the FBI 4 times and was ultimately hired by them. All it indicates is how rotten and unjust our justice system really is, including using a sitting DC jury, plucked from a constituency comprised of over 90% democrats. Most honest people would be shamed by such an alarming distortion of our justice and jury system. However, those who only consider partisan “wins†as a fair means to an end will react like Steve just did.
If a jury finds what you like they are honest. If it is something you dislike it is partisan. Got it. IOW, you cant lose as you are always right.
Steve
Early voting has started in 20 states. Something like half of all votes will be in before election day itself.
There is no more CPI report before election day — and prices aren’t going to drop in only 3 weeks.
There is a jobs report for Oct on Nov 4th and GDP on Oct 27th. There’s also a Fed meeting on Nov 2nd.
The jobs report and fed meeting are perhaps the only scheduled events that could have significant impact on the election. But considering election day is Nov 8th — the chance of a November surprise is significant.
Come on Steve….the DC jury is a hyper partisan one. It convicts a Republican for not responding to a subpoena (something Eric Holder did with no repercussions). It excuses a democrat for lying, doctoring paperwork etc. An honest jury is one who sees the evidence without bias. A dishonest one is one who sees everything through a filter which primarily benefits their own party, rather than adjudicates it based on right and wrong actions or behavior. An observer of this kind of lopsided “justice†(me) is simply disappointed in the system, and in someone like you who frequently blurs a legal outcome based on your own political affections and affiliations.