Germany’s Anomaly

There’s an article in the Financial Times on a subject that has been noticed—Germany death rate from COVID-19 is much lower than that of other European countries:

According to data from Johns Hopkins University, there were 13,979 coronavirus infections in Germany on Thursday afternoon, more than in any other country except China, Italy, Iran and Spain.

At the same time, Germany had only registered 42 deaths. Neighbouring France, by contrast, reported 9,058 infections and 243 deaths. Spain had 17,395 infections and 803 deaths. The US, the UK, Italy and even South Korea all show case fatality rates significantly higher than Germany. 

The apparent anomaly has sparked debate in Germany and beyond, though experts warn against drawing sweeping conclusions. They argue that the country’s low fatality rate most likely reflects the fact that the outbreak is still at a relatively early stage, and that the age profile of those affected has so far been younger than that in other countries. Younger patients without previous ailments have a much better chance of surviving Covid-19 than elderly patients. 

Another factor that may help explain the variance is the unusually high number of tests being carried out in Germany. According to Lothar Wieler, the president of the Robert Koch Institute, German laboratories are now conducting about 160,000 coronavirus tests every week — more than some European countries have carried out in total since the crisis started. Even South Korea, which is conducting 15,000 tests a day and has been held up by virologists as an example to follow, appears to be testing less than Germany. 

“This is about capacity. The capacity in Germany is very, very significant. We can conduct more than 160,000 tests per week, and that can be increased further,” Prof Wieler told journalists this week. Test capabilities would be boosted not least in part by switching laboratories that specialise in animal health towards coronavirus checks. There was no sign that test kits were running low, Prof Wieler added. 

In the short term at least, mass testing feeds through into a lower fatality rate because it allows authorities to detect cases of Covid-19 even in patients who suffer few or no symptoms, and who have a much better chance of survival. It also means that Germany is likely to have a lower number of undetected cases than countries where testing is less prevalent. Indeed, one notable feature of the coronavirus outbreak in Germany so far is the high number of relatively young patients: according to data from the Robert Koch Institute, more than 80 per cent of all people infected with the coronavirus are younger than 60. 

But

However, Prof Kräusslich cautioned that the picture in Germany was likely to change in the weeks and months ahead: “We are still at a relatively early stage in the outbreak in Germany. The overwhelming share of patients became infected only in the last week or two, and we will probably see more severe cases in the future as well as a change in the fatality rate.” 

Presently, the recovery rate in Germany is declining while the death rate is increasing. That support’s the Herr Doktor’s observation. That’s my greatest concern about this outbreak whether in Germany of the United States. Recovery is quite prolonged.