George Friedman is puzzled by the mysterious balloons:
The problem I have is imagining the mission these objects could carry out, one that would be invisible, allow loitering if needed and be able to avoid detection. There could be some highly specialized targets, but the fleet that the Chinese appear to have, and that they claim the U.S. has, seems excessive to the task. One Chinese craft was over a U.S. Air Force base that is doubtless loaded with secrets, but how many of the secrets would be visible or broadcasting in the clear?
One theoretical mission would be to divert attention. Russia is much closer to Alaska than is China. It is engaged in a war where the United States has a role, to understate it. Having large, weird craft flying over the continental United States could, in this thinking, generate panic, with the public demanding that the government focus on national defense and not Ukraine. There are a hundred diversionary functions these objects could serve for a limited time, although the result of this episode is low panic and high confusion.
The fundamental question is how objects this large, at altitudes allowing enhanced visibility, could go unnoticed if U.S. and Chinese charges are even close to true. From available information, the craft move with the grace of an elephant and could be shot down by aircraft, missile or a well-aimed slingshot. They must be stunningly advanced, which would explain why the U.S. government is withholding answers. If national security requires it, then it should be. But the price is that the U.S. government is shooting down aircraft and, knowing from the beginning that they are Chinese, is unable to tell us what it found in the wreckage.
and spending probably $1 million a pop or thereabouts to do it. I agree with Mr. Friedman that it behooves the Biden Administration to explain what it’s doing. Sadly, I doubt we’ll ever receive a genuinely coherent explanation. The answer may be “letting them fly didn’t work so now we’re shooting them down to see if that works” which isn’t very satisfying.
I think Friedman is overcomplicating something that is pretty simple:
– The Chinese are using these balloons for strategic reconnaissance and they are filling the same role that US reconnaissance aircraft do.
– High altitude balloons haven’t been widely monitored or tracked because the assumption has been that they aren’t a significant concern. Surveillance systems and radars have used gates to filter them out.
So again, the question becomes about what to do and regardless of the choice, the resulting answer is straightforward.