FUD

The editors of the Wall Street Journal are puzzled by Republicans’ attitudes towards getting vaccinated against COVID-19:

About 65% of Americans over the age of 12 and nearly 90% of those 65 and older have received at least one dose. Widespread inoculations have resulted in plunging cases, hospitalizations and deaths in recent months even as most states lifted their lockdowns and mask mandates.

Cases have fallen by some 90% and hospitalizations nearly as much since their January peak. Deaths are 95% lower, and hospitals have more room to admit less ill patients. Returns are diminishing on each new vaccination as herd immunity approaches, but the societal goal should still be to vaccinate as many adults as possible. The more vaccinations, the lower the chance that breakouts this fall and winter could burden the hospital system and result in lockdowns.

Most Americans believe the personal benefits from vaccination outweigh the potential risks. Governments haven’t needed to resort to coercion, though some have tried to prod people with financial incentives. Yet the question now is what to do about the third of Americans who haven’t been vaccinated, especially as the Delta variant spreads.

Experts have been guilty of overplaying the risk of new variants to justify lockdowns. But the Delta variant deserves special caution. It is estimated to be more than twice as contagious as the original strain. The Pfizer vaccine is also between 10% and 30% less effective in blocking transmission of the variant, though it still appears to be more than 90% protective against severe illness.

All of this means breakthrough infections are more likely to occur, and more people will have to be inoculated to achieve herd immunity. That’s why we’re seeing cases increasing, especially in pockets with low vaccination rates. Many of the unvaccinated are young adults who haven’t got around to it or don’t feel threatened by Covid.

A recent study of the group mentioned by the editors, young adults, published at the Journal of Adolescent Health casts some interesting light on the subject. The top reasons given by those surveyed (ages 18-25, with a reasonable distribution of racial and ethnic groups) were:

Reason	Percent non-“definitely will get” vaccinated
I plan to wait and see if it is safe and may get it later	56.2%
I am concerned about possible side effects of a COVID-19 vaccine	53.4%
I think other people need it more than I do right now	44.0%
I do not believe I need a COVID-19 vaccine	22.8%

I think the message here is don’t politicize diseases or their treatments. Even when it’s an election year. Even when you think defeating the incumbent is a moral necessity. Even when you think re-electing the incumbent is a moral necessity. The consequences can persist long after the utility of the politicization has vanished.